The All England Lawn Tennis Club has just announced the Wimbledon 2021 draw, and Roger Federer will face Adrian Mannarino in the first round.
The Swiss will play his first match on Tuesday, and you can see his projected opponents below.
Federer's Projected Opponents
- Round 1: Adrian Mannarino
- Round 2: Richard Gasquet
- Round 3: Cameron Norrie
- Round 4: Pablo Carreno Busta
- Quarter-Final: Daniil Medvedev
- Semi-Final: Alexander Zverev / Matteo Berrettini
- Final: Novak Djokovic
Printable Blank PDF Draws:
Updated Draws with Latest Results:
Thoughts on the Draw
After the loss in Halle, Federer briefly returned to Switzerland to practice on a private grass court before arriving in London on Wednesday. He has since practised with Grigor Dimitrov and Aslan Karatsev.
Given what we saw at the Noventi Open, it's difficult to predict what level Federer can bring, but since he could win three matches at the French Open, I'd expect him to at least match that here.
However, his first-round is not easy and pits him against Adrian Mannarino, who he beat in his first-ever match under the Centre Court roof in 2011. The two also met at Wimbledon in 2018, and both matches were straight sets affairs.
The Frenchman is currently playing in Mallorca, and the grass is the only surface he has a winning record on, thanks to his cat and mouse type game and being able to massage the ball around the court.
Fortunately, that game style doesn't usually cut the mustard with Federer as he grew up facing players in that mould rather than the standard heavy baseline hitting we see today.
Still, Mannarino held a virtual match point against him in Basel a few years ago, so Roger will need to serve well to keep the left-hander from getting a foothold in the match.
In round two, fellow veteran Richard Gasquet is the opponent if he sees off Yuichi Sugita. Gasquet played the Nottingham challenger last week but retired from his quarter-final match, and he immediately withdrew from Eastbourne, so there are question marks over his fitness.
Gasquet's results on grass are impressive for a guy who loves to play deep behind the baseline, with two grass titles and two Wimbledon semi-finals on his resume.
If he's able to move well, he'll give a good account of himself as he showed against Nadal for a set and a half at last months French Open, but I'd pick Federer to come through.
Moving into the last 32, this likely puts Federer up against one of the years in form players, Cameron Norrie. The Brit has played well on all four surfaces this season, including grass, making the final at Queen's a week ago.
While not the guy who'll produce jaw-dropping type shots, Norrie is exceptionally tough to beat as he'll make many balls. He also possesses an ultra spinny forehand paired with an ultra-flat backhand which can cause players problems.
Federer has played him once before, at the 2019 Hopman Cup, where he came through for the loss of just two games.
That gives Federer the edge, but Norrie has 29 victories this season which is the third most wins on the ATP tour.
The only player likely to give Norrie trouble before a potential Federer showdown is Alex Bolt, who's received a wild card thanks to his title-winning performance at the Nottingham Challenger.
The top seed is Pablo Carreno Busta for the fourth round, but he's yet to get out the first round at SW19 in five attempts, so it's more likely either Sam Querrey or Lorenzo Sonego make the last sixteen. I don't see either of those guys posing big problems assuming Federer win his first three matches and has fresh legs.
Into the quarter-finals and Medevev is the top seed in the other quarter, but he has a very tricky match against Jan Lennard Struff in the first round. Cilic and Dimitrov are also in this section and are both capable of making the last eight.
For the semi-final, Sascha Zverev and Matteo Berrettini are the two big dogs in Federer's half. The Italian has been a hot pick pre-tournament given his showing at Queen's Club, so it will be interesting to see if he lives up to the billing as Novak's biggest threat for the title.
On the other side, Djokovic is the top seed. He comes in after a brilliant performance in Paris and some grass-court practice thanks to playing doubles in Mallorca, which looks like a smart move.
Novak also has a very kind draw, with no real threatening names or dangerous floaters in his quarter. Can Tsitsipas can come through his section for a French Open final rematch in the last four?
On paper, it's hard not to see Novak in the final but grass always breeds upsets, and I imagine the draw will be ripped apart by the middle Sunday.
As for Federer, I think he has a pretty good draw but can see a couple of sets dropped during the opening rounds.
The question will be, can he sustain a level without huge peaks and troughs, and what sort of quality and quantity of chances can be created during a match? If the answers to those two questions are yes and plenty, the results will follow.
Interesting First Round Matches
- Daniil Medvedev vs Jan Lennard Struff
- Dan Evans vs Feliciano Lopez
- Stefanos Tstisipas vs Frances Tiafoe
- Kyrgios vs Ugo Humbert
What do you guys think of the 2021 Wimbledon draw? Predictions for Federer? Let me know in the comments.