Hey everyone, as I'm sure you all already know the draw for Wimbledon is out and with Nadal been seeded 5th it's made it very tricky for both Federer and Murray who both landed in the Spaniards half. After getting a good draw at the French Roger has drawn the short straw here and will have to face Nadal in the Quarter Finals should they both make it that far which is never an easy proposition.
Pretty much every article I've read on the mainstream tennis sites is what a terrible draw this is for both Federer and Murray – but really we expected it, it's obvious and who cares?
There's nothing we can do about it so I'm not going to waste my team complaining about it. Yes it's tough but at the same time it also makes it pretty interesting as this is potentially the earliest ever in a slam Federer and Nadal will have met. Maybe that works in Roger's favour? Nobody knows!
I'd of course much preferred Nadal to be seeded 4th but what can you do, he's clearly the second best player in the world on form right now but the rankings say different and that's what we have to stick to. Ferrer has been solid for a long time, he's accumulated ranking points and avoided injury so he's rightfully the 4th seed.
I don't think there's much point dwelling on the draw, after all Fed had it easy in Paris and looked what happened, the draw is just a sheet of paper, all that matters is what happens on the court, everything else takes care of itself.
Federer's Potential Opponents
Up until the Quarter Finals Roger actually has a pretty nice draw, he's facing competent grass court players but there's nobody who you can say yeah this guy can defeat Roger if he hits top form. He'd have to play a real clown match to lose early here I think.
- 1st Round: Hanescu
- 2nd Round: Dutra Silva / Stakhovsky
- 3rd Round: Fognini / Lukas Rosol
- 4th Round: Almagro
- Quarter Final: Rafael Nadal
- Semi Final: Andy Murray
- Final: Novak Djokovic
Like I said, this is a nice run in up until the Quarters for Roger and he should make it without too much trouble, there's just no real big match players in there that have imposing games. Janowicz is lingering but he's too unpredictable and I figure Almagro would beat him anyway.
After Hanescu in the first round I guess he will play Stakhovsky who also has a fairly nice game for grass but is too inconsistent, I think he can be a test though and will construct some nice points so Roger will have to be focused to make sure he gets it done in straights.
I can't see Rosol replicating what he did at Wimbledon last year so no doubt Fognini will be who he meets in the third round and Roger defeated him in straight sets in the second round in 2012 so I'd expect a similar outcome.
In the fourth round he could face Almagro who has a fairly big game but hasn't really done well on grass before. He has weighty ground strokes but I don't think he can string enough together to cause Roger too many problems. Almagro is good when he's blasting away on clay, but can he handle variety and the bounce on grass? I'm not so sure.
Then of course it's the Quarters where things get interesting which I'll discuss a little below.
Predictions vs. Hanescu
First up for Roger is Romanian Viktor Hanescu whom Roger holds a 5-0 lead in the H2H against with their last meeting coming at Indian Wells in 2010. Hanescu is a veteran but I think he's a dangerous player because he has a decent serve and a good forehand so you can't take him too lightly.
Of course I think Roger wins in straight sets but it won't be a cake walk and he will have to play solidly throughout which is a good first match for him. He's coming in confident after Halle and has already been practicing in SW19 for a couple of days so should be raring to go. I'll go for a 6-2 6-4 7-5 victory.
Will Roger Beat Nadal if they Meet?
This is a real tough one but I think Federer has a good chance, it won't be easy and you never know what to expect from Nadal so it's exceptionally difficult to call. If it's under a roof then the Roger's chances increase significantly so a rainy Quarter Final day would be nice :D.
I guess you have to make Nadal favourite based on past meetings in Grand Slams but it's 5 years since they met on grass so there's little indication of what will happen on a quicker court.
Of course they both have to make it too, sometimes Federer plays poorly when Nadal is looming in the draw and there's a few guys who can cause Nadal problems in his draw should he face them like Isner, Paire and Wawrinka.
The main thing is that Fed MUST conserve energy in the early rounds to get past Nadal, to win the title he'd have to beat Nadal, Murray and Djokovic which is a crazy feat.
I mean even for Prime Fed that is a tough ask. So there's basically no chance he does that if he is dropping sets for fun in the first week, he has to win easily and build momentum for the later rounds. If he does beat Nadal there is the chance he zones in for the semis and final though which could be pretty special.
Elsewhere in the Draw
Elsewhere in the draw there's nothing really much to report, Djokovic has a nice draw and he should be able to make the final without too much hassle. Although Mayer could be a tricky first round opponent with his variety and awkward game.
There's a couple of interesting first round matches with Wawrinka facing Hewitt which isn't easy for Stan; Verdasco vs. Malisse could easily go 5 sets and it'd be good to see James Ward win his first round because he would play Murray in the second.
What do you think of the draw? Content with it? Think Roger has a shot at #18?