Roger FedererTennis PredictionsUS Open

US Open Draw Predictions

Hey all, sorry on the delay on this post but I got tied up with other things, mainly work but luckily I've managed to squeeze it in before play starts on Monday. I think overall Roger got a pretty good draw, not the easiest as he has Berdych as a potential quarter final opponent and then Murray in the semi finals. But I'm pretty sure like usual that draws never plan out as expected. Roger has had much easier draws on paper that have gotten harder and it only takes a couple of upsets to throw the whole draw out of sync.

One thing is for certain though and that's Roger playing Donald Young in the first round and I think that's probably one of the easiest first round matches Roger could have asked for. Young has been having a torrid time of late and up until last week was on a 17 match losing streak before he beat Leonardo Mayer in Winston Salem. I expect that to be a demolition job from Roger, probably a bread stick in at least 1 set.

After that then everything else is just speculation and Roger could face Bjorn Phau in round 2, followed by Verdasco in round 3. (I expect Verdasco to lose to Machado though). The 4th round is where it gets a little bit interesting with Roger seeded to meet Gilles Simon or Mardy Fish. I think he will probably play Fish who could be quite dangerous. He played well again Roger in Cincinnati and still couldn't get a set so I'd guess the outcome will be similar in New York.

After that it's seeded to be a Fed/Berdych Quarter, Murray in the Semi finals and then Djokovic in the final but like I said all of this could quite easily change. Berdych hasn't been in great form lately and Murray is always capable of losing early. So rather than talk about these matches now I'll be making match by match predictions once Roger's opponents are decided.

Full 1st Round Draw

1-Roger Federer (SUI) v Donald Young (USA)
Qualifier v Bjorn Phau (GER)
Albert Ramos (ESP) v Robby Ginepri (USA)
Rui Machado (POR) v 25-Fernando Verdasco (ESP)
23-Mardy Fish (USA) v Go Soeda (JPN)
Nikolay Davydenko (RUS) v Qualifier
Ivo Karlovic (CRO) v Qualifier
Michael Russell (USA) v 16-Gilles Simon (FRA)
11-Nicolas Almagro (ESP) v Radek Stepanek (CZE)
Nicolas Mahut (FRA) v Philipp Petzschner (GER)
Blaz Kavcic (SLO) v Flavio Cipolla (ITA)
Jack Sock (USA) v 22-Florian Mayer (GER)
27-Sam Querrey (USA) v Lu Yen-Hsun (TPE)
Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo (ESP) v Somdev Devvarman (IND)
Denis Istomin (UZB) v Jurgen Zopp (EST)
David Goffin (BEL) v 6-Tomas Berdych (CZE)
3-Andy Murray (GBR) v Alex Bogomolov (RUS)
Qualifier v Ivan Dodig (CRO)
Thomaz Bellucci (BRA) v Pablo Andujar (ESP)
Robin Haase (NED) v 30-Feliciano Lopez (ESP)
24-Marcel Granollers (ESP) v Denis Kudla (USA)
Lukas Lacko (SVK) v James Blake (USA)
Paul-Henri Mathieu (FRA) v Igor Andreev (RUS)
Santiago Giraldo (COL) v 15-Milos Raonic (CAN)
12-Marin Cilic (CRO) v Marinko Matosevic (AUS)
Qualifier v Adrian Ungur (ROM)
Qualifier v Qualifier
Qualifier v 17-Kei Nishikori (JPN)
32-Jeremy Chardy (FRA) v Filippo Volandri (ITA)
Tatsuma Ito (JPN) v Matthew Ebden (AUS)
Martin Klizan (SVK) v Alejandro Falla (COL)
Qualifier v 5-Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA)
8-Janko Tipsarevic (SRB) v Guillaume Rufin (FRA)
Brian Baker (USA) v Jan Hajek (CZE)
Qualifier v Qualifier
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe (GER) v 29-Viktor Troicki (SRB)
19-Philipp Kohlschreiber (GER) v Michael Llodra (FRA)
Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) v Benoit Paire (FRA)
Mikhail Kukushkin (KAZ) v Jarkko Nieminen (FIN)
Xavier Malisse (BEL) v 9-John Isner (USA)
13-Richard Gasquet (FRA) v Albert Montanes (ESP)
Jurgen Melzer (AUT) v Qualifier
Steve Johnson (USA) v Rajeev Ram (USA)
Ernests Gulbis (LAT) v 21-Tommy Haas (GER)
28-Mikhail Youzhny (RUS) v Gilles Muller (LUX)
Tobias Kamke (GER) v Lleyton Hewitt (AUS)
Qualifier v Daniel Gimeno-Traver (ESP)
Kevin Anderson (RSA) v 4-David Ferrer (ESP)
7-Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG) v David Nalbandian (ARG)
Benjamin Becker (GER) v Ryan Harrison (USA)
Lukasz Kubot (POL) v Leonardo Mayer (ARG)
Tommy Robredo (ESP) v 26-Andreas Seppi (ITA)
20-Andy Roddick (USA) v Qualifier
Carlos Berlocq (ARG) v Bernard Tomic (AUS)
Edouard Roger-Vasselin (FRA) v Fabio Fognini (ITA)
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (ESP) v 10-Juan Monaco (ARG)
14-Alexandr Dolgopolov (UKR) v Jesse Levine (USA)
Marcos Baghdatis (CYP) v Qualifier
Steve Darcis (BEL) v Malek Jaziri (TUN)
Sergiy Stakhovsky (UKR) v 18-Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI)
31-Julien Benneteau (FRA) v Olivier Rochus (BEL)
Dennis Novikov (USA) v Jerzy Janowicz (POL)
Rogerio Dutra Silva (BRA) v Qualifier
Paolo Lorenzi (ITA) v 2-Novak Djokovic (SRB)

Elsewhere in the Draw

Out of the top seeds Djoker got the easiest potential run to the final and his only real test looks like it could be Del Potro in the Quarter finals, assuming he's fit and makes it.

Other than that Djoker has it easy and I expect him to make the final. Murray also has an easy opening but it gets progressively tougher and he could have to face Raonic and Tsonga to make the semi finals where he'd likely meet Federer.

Potential Upsets and Dark Horses

Like most slams there's bound to be a few upsets and dark horses that come through. And here are a few of my predictions:

Potential Upsets

  • Machado to beat Verdasco
  • Kamke to beat Hewitt
  • Anderson to beat Ferrer
  • Almagro to lose early

Dark Horses

  • Haas
  • Istomin
  • Nishikori
  • Kukushkin

Do you think there will be any surprises?


Huge fan of Roger Federer. I watch all his matches from Grand Slam level right down to ATP 250. When I'm not watching or writing about tennis I play regularly myself and have a keen interest in tactics, equipment and technicalties of the sport.

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  1. why do u thing that the first round is easy for roger ?? young plays very well sometimes , that is why we can’t call him an easy opponent .

    1. Nah, Young is no good. He will go for too much, make a ton of errors and get beat up badly. Straights. The guy has lost 17 straight matches and he’s 2-20 this year. And he has the pressure of the American crowd. Who still want Fed to win.

      1. Good noticing , but we must not forget that the pressure of the American crowd will affect on roger’s performance too .

      2. Hmm Fed is always under some pressure but if he’s on Ashe then he’s going to have a ton of support. I think the style Young plays makes him a sitting duck for Roger.

      3. What sort of style from Young makes him a good matchup for Federer? Young does have a lot of footspeed and likes to hit a loopy forehand crosscourt, which goes into Federer’s backhand. Those traits are similar ones that cause trouble to him from Nadal. But yes, I agree it will be a cakewalk match nevertheless.

      4. Reminds me of Brian Dabul who Fed played in first round in 2010. Young can’t defend as well off his backhand side and he’s not going to be able to dictate.

        Maybe he can draw some inspiration from the US Crowd after he made the 4th round last year. But doubtful he will be getting many games.

      5. @Adarash “Young does have a lot of footspeed and likes to hit a loopy forehand crosscourt, which goes into Federer’s backhand”. But…compared to what, the foot speed of Nadal and the revolutions he puts on the ball? And the patience and endurance?

      6. @Sid: I know, just stating some similarities (as primitive as they may actually be) to Nadal. 😛

  2. The interesting question in the draw is who is going to make it out of the Ferrer quarter. It’s a big opportunity for the likes of Tipsarevic, Isner, Gasquet and Haas to get the honour of being hammered by Djokovic in the semis of the U.S.

  3. Federer got an easy draw at the French Open 2009. And YES, it turned out to be a nightmare 4R and SF (Fed almost lost in both!) So I agree with you that draws never turn out as planned and even Fed and Djokovic can be upset if someone is having a magical day! I see Murray as a threat and maybe a 4 or 5 setter meeting with Federer. But I laugh at some US Open “experts” saying, yes, MURRAY Is the favorite!!!!! And that Murray will comfortably beat Federer in the semis and Novak, #2 in the world, in a 5-set:6-4 final set final! I believe Djokovic is gonna win it due to his cakewalk path, but I have told hundreds to never count Federer out and I don’t! Federer is my second bet but let’s hope for #18 <—– WOW!!!!!

    PS: I'm picking Tsonga and Raonic as dark horses!

  4. I think Murray gets upset along the way, and probably Ferrer. I think Berdych could go out before the quarters (just suffered a tough loss to Isner in the Winston Salem final).

  5. Thanks for this JM – in front of his home crowd Young will surely be up to show he’s not quite as bad as you point out.

    I don’t know if Roger is the type to look beyond his opening match – it’s easy for us to though lol.

    With Murray being in the top half I do still think that Roger is favourite to come thru and play Nole in the final – the GOAT is just so consistent at this level and I loved him beating Andy at Wimbledon then for obvious reasons losing to the Brit in London 2012.


    1. Yeah maybe Young can play pretty well. Suppose he did make the 4th round last year, forgot that he beat Wawrinka in 5. He’s 2-20 this year though, that is pretty bad by anyone’s standards.

      Maybe the fact they have never played each other works abit in Youngs favour as Fed won’t know what to expect.

  6. i think yes.. there are going to be surprises (upsets 🙂 ) in this years US open but i am going to be relaxed Since roger has reached his goals for this year and we all should be with him like a supporter (not as a overhead pressure 🙂 )….enough said!

    1. Agreed. I only have one more request for Roger and that is to win just 3 more slams. You think he can manage that? 🙂

  7. After winning Cinci, I think Roger is super confident now. Just read Roger’s last interview, “I think I felt good last year, but probably felt that maybe at times the matches were not always in my racquet, whereas maybe this time around I feel like if I’m playing well I can dictate who’s going to win or lose. It’s going to take something special from my opponent to win. That’s kind of how it feels right now.”

    In my opinion, it’s very good. I’ve always think that Roger’s nemesis are not in ATP list, it’s in himself. IMO, if he can mantain his A+ game all the way to the final, nobody can stop him, even if all players from Laver time to Sampras era all play at their best. It’s because he’s a truly genius, he plays like noone else ever play. Like from another planet.

    However, this time, at the age of 31 his experience really play a role, he’s really believe in himself, what he’s capable of, but he’s not over confident.
    “Then again, I might walk away from Monday and lost the first round. You have to always be very careful how you say it and how you then play. I will take it one match at a time. There’s no doubt about that. I will never ever underestimate an opponent ever again. I did that enough when I was a teenager. Those times are long gone.”

    So, if I should bet on US Open champ, I’ll put all my money on Fed. Go GOAT!!!

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