The Coupe Rogers draw took place at 4 pm local yesterday and despite the notable absences of Djokovic, Wawrinka and Murray the good news for ticket holders is that Federer's back in town. It's the first time the Swiss will be taking to the court in Quebec since 2011 and you can see his projected draw below:
Federer's Projected Opponents
- Round 1: Bye
- Round 2: Vasek Pospisil / Peter Polansky
- Round 3: Jack Sock
- Quarter Final: Kei Nishikori
- Semi Final: Dominic Thiem
- Final: Rafael Nadal
Thoughts on the Draw
Roger will play his first match on Wednesday 9th of August during the day (according to reports he asked not to play on the 8th, perhaps he didn't want a cake on court 🙂 ) and his first opponent will either be Pospisil or Polansky. Both guys have some hard court matches under their belts post-Wimbledon, with Polansky making a Challenger final in Granby and Pospisil playing in Atlanta and Washington but only managing 1 win. Polansky leads the H2H 1-0 but that's from 2011 and I'd give Pospisil the favourite tag heading into that one.
Roger actually played Pospisil the last time he was in Montreal and it was a fairly tough match, in fact, all three of their encounters have been quite tight matches but Roger's won all of them and you'd back him to make it 4-0 in the H2H should they meet on Wednesday.
Round 3 is projected to be Jack Sock who scored a decent win against Raonic in Washington yesterday to make the Semi Finals. Ferrer and Edmund are in that section too with both of them capable of beating Sock if he's not having a great day. As for who Roger faces then it should be a comfortable match, Sock has quite a few holes in his game which Federer readily exploits, Ferrer has been running on empty all season although he's picked up a touch in recent weeks and Edmund has a huge forehand but is not the all round package. Despite that maybe Edmund is the more dangerous of the three as he can hit through the court.
Into the Quarters and Nishikori is the seeded opponent. Like Sock he's playing in the Citi Open Semi Finals today and looks to be in ok form. Nishikori's always a bit of enigma though so I have no idea if he makes it to the Quarters here. Steve Johnson, Gael Monfils and RBA are in that section too and all are capable of going deep at 1000 level. Should it be Kei then I like Fed's chances as he's got the better of him in their last few meetings. If Nishikori has one of those days where he's hitting the ball super clean then he's obviously difficult to stop but you always question if he can hold his serve enough times to beat the top guys consistently.
As for the semi finals, Thiem is the top seed but he crashed early in Washington and his hard court game is less than stellar. Dimitrov and Berdych are the other names in there but they too recorded losses in Washington, to Medvedev and Kokkinakis respectively, so it's anyone's guess who comes through that section.
Then the finals are projected to be against old foe Rafael Nadal who'll be the World Number One if he reaches the semi finals. He's landed a tough draw though with Coric, Del Potro, Isner, Raonic and Zverev all possible opponents before the final.
With three big names missing in Djokovic, Wawrinka and Cilic then the draw is wide open. Top 10 player Andy Murray is also missing due to his hip injury so some of the guys on the periphery (or journeymen as Max Eisenbud would say) will surely be eyeing the title here.
Roger is obviously the bookies favourite going in along with Nadal but the Rogers Cup has never been his best tournament and he's never won it when it's been played in Montreal so I'm not too sure what to expect. He's had losses to Roddick (03), Djokovic (07) and Tsonga (09, 11) in his four appearances at the Uniprix Stadium so not his best hunting ground. Then again neither was Miami and cruised to the title 😉 . Anyway, I think he'll make the last four based on the draw then it's all about his form at the business end of things.
What do you guys think? Let me know in the comments.