ATP Masters 1000Monte-Carlo MastersRoger Federer

Monte Carlo Draw 2015: Federer Bids For Elusive Title in Côte d’Azur

Hey all, the Monte Carlo draw for 2015 has just landed and it's a very strong field of players; which means no easy route to the final for any of the top seeds especially not Roger who's received a tough run in. You can see his projected opponents below:

Federer's Seeded Opponents

  • Round 1: Bye
  • Round 2: Jeremy Chardy
  • Round 3: Gael Monfils / Alexander Dolgopolov
  • Quarter Final: Stan Wawrinka / Grigor Dimitrov
  • Semi Final: Milos Raonic
  • Final: Novak Djokovic / Rafael Nadal

Full .PDF draw.

Thoughts on the Draw

Federer Monte Carlo Draw 2015

The Monte Carlo country club has never been a happy hunting ground for Federer and on paper it's not looking any different this year. First up is either Jeremy Chardy or a Qualifier. Chardy has been playing over in Houston, losing yesterday to Anderchoke. That means he's got a 12 hour flight to catch with at least 1 stop before arriving in Nice and then playing his opener on Monday. Not ideal so depending on who he draws I'd think Fed could well be facing a qualifier in Round 2.

Round 3 is bound to be a tricky one if either Monfils or Dolgopolov make it. Coric is also a potential opponent but I'll pick Monfils to come through and his last match against Fed on clay was a straight sets demolition in the Davis Cup. Of course Fed was injured that day but you only have to look at the US Open match last year to know the level Monfils can produce. Fed is of course favourite against both those guys but given the way they play either could do some damage:

If Roger makes the quarter finals then a rematch of last years final could be on the cards against Wawrinka. Stan is coming in off a poor hard court swing in America and his unpredictable level always makes it hard to class him as a banker. In fact that whole section is packed with unpredictability in the shape of Dimitrov, Fognini, Verdasco, Janowicz and Monaco. There's bound to be some topsy turvy matches with those guys involved but if Stan can hold it together and get his self belief gland working then I think he'll come through.

The semi finals is then seeded to be against either Raonic or Berdych. Quite tough to call who comes through out of those two. Berdych is a two time semi finalist in Monte Carlo whilst Raonic made the quarters last year so fairly evenly matched, I'd pick Berdych as a better clay court player though to edge it should they meet.

Then of course comes the final which is projected to be against Djokovic or Nadal. The Serb has looked unstoppable lately but has he overplayed? Nadal on the other hand has looked below his best but a return to clay could spur him on. Ferrer can't be ruled out in that side of the draw either especially after he beat Nadal last year in convincing fashion.

Really hard to predict what Fed can do here in what I think is a wide open tournament. Last year he made the finals which was a bit of a surprise and this year I have no idea what to expect. Since this his first outing on clay I think he will be most vulnerable in his first 2 matches, if he comes through those then I like his chances of playing through to next weekend.

Predictions

  • Rosol to take out Tomic
  • Troicki or Isner to blow a set lead vs. Nadal
  • Nadal to defeat Ferrer
  • Tsonga to take out Djokovic

What do you guys think? Can Federer win a title that has so far eluded him?

Jonathan

Huge fan of Roger Federer - I'll pretty much try and watch all his matches from Grand Slam level right down to ATP 250. When I'm not watching or tweeting about tennis I play regularly myself and use this blog to share my thoughts on Fed and tennis in general.

Related Articles

99 thoughts on “Monte Carlo Draw 2015: Federer Bids For Elusive Title in Côte d’Azur”

  1. Many quality players on his quarters, that’s what my first thought seeing draw… Hopefully Roger goes deep here… Let’s see

  2. Hmm, really wouldn’t like to predict anything, based on that draw! Defending champion in the quarters (probably), Rafa/Novak should he make it through. Oh well, let’s wait and see what happens.

  3. Tsonga will never beat Nadal again, not in a million years, and especially on clay. Oh, and 17th comment! 😀

  4. Well I like your bold predictions Jonathan! Not sure now about Tomic, whether Kyrgios/Coric/Kokkinakkis’ recent time in the spotlights, or him perhaps maturing at last, he’s certainly improved his game and his ranking in the last few months. Can’t now get over my dislike of him, but I would put him through against Rosol. And Tsonga to take out Djokovic? True, Novak’s played a lot of matches and may be somewhat jaded, but is Tsonga anywhere near to getting back to form? Last time they played on clay at Roland Garros, it was a real beat-down. 6-1,6-4,6-1 by Djokovic…

    Still, it *is* a tough draw for our guy…phew! Dolgopolov’s looked in much better form; Clownfils – well that depends, but he usually pulls out all the stops against our champ. Ah well, like you said, it was a surprise when he got to the final last year. Just so long as it’s not Chardy if he does make it through the qualifier!

    Not bothering with the Tiger challenge, it’s a bit of a fag and I’m so shit at predicting! Plus I don’t want to jinx the champ! 🙂

      1. Wasn’t aware of Rosol’s clay game – fair enough Jonathan; I’ll be very happy to see Rosol through since I can’t stand Tomic.

  5. Not the easiest of draws, but the business end is where the magic happens and avoiding nadal I suppose makes it a reasonable one. I would be happy with a final showing. Winning may be a lot to ask given the two monsters on the other side of the draw, but if fed can win through against a pretty tough opening set of stages, that to me spells progress.

      1. I’d forgotten it was usually such a poor tourny for him. Oh well, no expectations at all, then. I must admit I was surprised he’d even entered, but then he did indicate a year ago that he was intending to be back this year …

  6. Hi Jonathan, lol @ Slamdunk same thing I thought to but decided to damn the consequences last minute.
    I’d say if Federer gets through Chardy, he makes the final. Depending on who he faces on the other side, he wins Monte Carlo once and for all.
    My wish is neither Nadal and Djokovic make it there. Maybe Nadal gets taken out by Thiem 😉 and Djokovic gets taken out by….err, can’t remember the draw anymore 🙂 but at the quarters/semifinal stage.
    Thank goodness the matches start tomorrow, it’s been a long time coming.

    1. Exactly, gotta be in it to win it. No chance of winning the peRFect league if you miss a round. Champions mindset Utch 😆

      I doubt Chardy will be looking forward to playing – 12 hour flight at least then Nice to Monte Carlo to play. Houston surface not very similar either to MC so no time to get used to it.

      1. Well, Nice-Monte Carlo is hardly a stretch: nice quick trip from the airport to the station, hop on a train and you’re in MC in a jiffy. Especially if you can afford to stretch to a cab 🙂

        The change of surface is more likely to be a problem, though.

      2. Some players will get the helicopter in no doubt but it’s just an added journey. All extra time spent travelling so I think it’s at least a 15 hour trip from Houston to Monte Carlo. Not good preparation at all.

  7. Though for Roger… God I hate the Chardy matches, the guy is really annoyingly agressive when he plays Roger!
    Come on… in his quarter there is 3 guys he lost to in their last clay court encounter : Monfils, Chardy, Wawrinka. Wawrinka is 2- 0 in Monte Carlo against Roger… Seriously, I’ve prayed he wasn’t in Nadal’s half but now I don’t know what would have been best!

    The good thing is that Roger is pretty much aware of that clay court fact and he’s going to be ready for those matches.

    Thiem is in good form, he could be tricky for Nadal’s first round. His backhand is just amazing, mostly the jumping one, it could do the trick against Nadal’s top spin cross court forehand.

    On Djoko side Gulbis needs to wake up at some point, if he passes his first 2 rounds he could beat Djoko, but it’s quite unlikely to happen!!!

    Monaco, if he goes past Vesely, could upset Wawrinka!

    Well for Roger, there is a serie of unpleasant matches for me to watch, I might hibernate and wait to here how this one unfolded!!! (Can’t really do that either so i’m gonna watch!)

  8. I think all draws are potentially tough for Roger. Everyone still has it in their sight to beat him. Once again for me it’s too hard to predict. Djokovic looking like burn out heading his way. Nadal not in form. Wawrinka didn’t do well in America.
    Maybe Roger is gunning for a repeat of 2009 on clay and grass!

      1. If he repeats RG and Wimbly, who cares about MC.
        No idea who I’ll pick for the draw. I’ll just click on names as I go through.

    1. I don’t particularly think it matters that Nadal is in form or not. This is clay now so even when he’s at 90% he’s still better than majority of most guy’s 100. Djoker really the only one who can put a stop to him on this surface so based on the past few years, he’s the favourite no matter what.

  9. would like to see Fed win Monte-Carlo & Madrid and skip Rome. Jeez, if that happens, he will so be on fire at RG 😉
    Jonathan, no predictions for us loosing third round please…

  10. Jonathan, you are spot on these days when it comes to predictions. But Tsonga to take out Nole!!! I think you are getting over-confident….

    1. Any idiot can predict Djokovic or Nadal to win a clay court event 🙂 I’m just going for one I think has a small chance of coming off and will be interesting if it does

      1. Take it easy Jon… 😀 I think the spirit of my comment was no different from yours. These predictions really make things interesting.

  11. Somewhere in Dumblane, there is a wedding!!!
    Kim weds Murray ! KANDY 2015!!
    Tennis babies all the way, gosh, I am getting old..need to go knot hunting 😉

    1. Well, Andy did say he didn’t want to start a family until he’d retired, so don’t hold your breath.

      Boy, I can see why Fed and Mirka wanted to keep it quiet.

  12. Tough draw but gotta beat the best to win! I predict a Q to beat Chardy like J. Too much to ask straight from Houston. I also think the Dog will come thru to play Fed. And I think Monaco ( fresh from his training sess with Nadul

  13. Jonathan, how is Britain taking the news of Murray’s wedding? Is a tv station covering it? hear it is all over Sky news.

    1. Well, I noticed the front page of The Times this morning mentioned something about it being treated like Scotland’s royal wedding. Ugh. Nice venue, though: one of my friends got married there not that long before it had to be used for a rather sadder purpose.

  14. lol Jonathan, spoilsport. Rooting for Dzumbur to get to the finals in Morroco, he folded in the last set. Now, I am all up for Jack Sock to win the whole thing. I hope he does. I really don’t want him to just be a doubles wonder.

  15. Hey, Tiger Mobiles has put up a countdown clock! “You have 11 hours & xxx to make your predictions”!!

    Thank goodness Utch mentioned the matches start tomorrow, or I’d have assumed they were just finishing qualies. Of course that means we have to make predictions without knowing which qualifier will be in the slot – sheesh. More of a lottery than ever.

    Tsonga over Djokovic, Jonathan! That IS bold! Did you actually enter that on your Tiger entry??? Tsonga seems to me to have been sub-par for quite a while now; down to coaching change, or continued injury? I’m not convinced he’s ever getting back to his best.

    Will be very interesting to see what clay does for Nadal’s so far less than his usual performances this year.

    And of course it’s always a joy to have Roger playing. Glad to see Mirka is in MC with him, I think he plays better when she is there. I’m sure he’s said MC is less than ideal from a family standpoint though, so maybe this is the week for the grandparents to keep the kids at home.

    1. OK, I have Cilic taking out Djokovic, which is almost as bold 😉

      As everyone has said, really a very strong field, should be some great matches – though as always, perhaps not the ones we expect!

    2. Yeah timer is helpful and since Miami predictions now highlight in red if they were wrong or green if they were right. Makes it easier to track results.

      It said in the email they will extend the deadline where possible but looking at the OOP it looks like some qualifying matches are still going to be taking place when Tomic steps on court. I don’t think they are added in until all matches are complete either.

      Not sure on Cilic, been a bit of a mug since the USO. I just picked Tsonga as he played well in MC before and can always catch fire.

  16. More like “anyone to blow a set lead against Nadal”…

    Really interested to see what Fed produces on clay this year seeing as his schedule is going all out of the way for it. Djoker I think would be pretty mentally/physically fatigued after a very very impressive start to the season but then again could continue the streak. This tournament despite its pretty environment is far down the list of viewing/quality so should Fed lose early it wouldn’t be so bad 😛 My feeling is that Nadal gets up and running here and reclaims his throne in Monaco to set up what should be another run at Roland Garros.

    On a side note, congrats to Murray, Kim looked gorgeous! Coincidence that he chose the same date as Roger/Mirka?

    1. I dunno why everyone is expecting Nadal to crash out early. He looked in better form at IW only to fall to Raonic in a tight match. Miami was poor for him but back on clay he’s bound to be tough to put away.

  17. Is it just me or does anybody else think that this is as ideal as a draw on clay can get. I think Fed would pay some SERIOUS money to get this kind of draw at Roland Garros.

    1. I’m going for Ferrer defeating Nadal in the quarters (he’s started playing Nadal well over the last few matches- plus Nadal be-eth rusty+slightly shaky). Djokovic to take out Ferrer. (demolition)

      In Fed’s quarter, Fed beats Chardy, Monfils, Wawrinka, Raonic (beats Berdych) and obviously takes out Djokovic (:p)

    2. What do you mean by ideal? Just because Dull is in the opposite half?

      I think it’s pretty tough, quite a few guys with solid clay games. Based on recent clay performances for Fed it won’t be easy.

      No titles on the surface since 2009, blue clay only in 2012. And now suddenly he’s gonna sweep the clay season Nadal-style according to some 😆

  18. Well tough draw indeed. Based on my calculations. My predictions are:
    Nadal goes down to Lucas Pouille in the 2nd round
    Ferrer makes Djokovic work before the serb reaches the final
    Wawrinka loses early
    Raonic/Berdych will be a standout match
    Federer will take out an exhausted Serb in 2 sets. (Ps Omens for Federer against Djokovic at the country club ahave been good)

    Here s to Roger s maiden Title at Momte Carlo.

    1. Gonna have to oppose most of those predictions I think 😛

      Nadal losing to Pouille 😆 I know he had a poor hardcourt swing but incredible how people write him off. Gotta learn your lesson on that one, he bounced back many times before. I am expecting him to still perform well on clay. No doubt he’s not going to be a factor on all surfaces but this stuff suits his game perfectly.

      A servebot vs. a ball basher – dunno how that one can stand out. Raonic offers a bit more but both guys are pretty one dimensional.

      Djokerer final – could happen but I’m picking Djoker not to make it.

      1. Sorry buddy I am sort of more inclined to make intrepid predictions about these matches.
        Standout I meant to say a more of 7-6,6-7 affair, so I stand corrected in that one. I admit i am a Fedfan, but I have a feeling he ll go one step better this time around, him being fresh and pumped up I am.
        And I know how it is has become a routine that Nadal redeems himself in April , but I’ll stick with my prediction of him losing to Lucas Pouille in the 2nd round if they meet.
        And yes djoko might have overplayed a bit , but i still see him in the finals given his red-hot form.
        Exciting times !

    1. Possible, Pouille looked reasonable against Fed. Thiem was hot and cold earlier in the year but seems to have picked up. I heard he had military service so lost some momentum.

    1. Hey Wanda, I was too late with my Tiger Mobiles Predictions. Totally forgot it and missed it.

      But…. I am backing the one and only Goat as the winner !!!

      1. Hey Katyani, of course! The one and only, even though I’d never win the Tiger Challenge. How could I pick somebody else when his name on the draw? I just can’t.

      2. Hey sweet Gaurav,
        First: God
        Second: my mom
        Third: The Goat der Goats 🙂

        In Roger I trust 🙂 Come on Goat, don’t let me and us all down 🙂

        Hey sweet Wanda, totally agree. Picking someone else than Roger to win… feels like cheating on the great man 🙂

  19. Tough draw or not, I am just happy to see him back on court. I even dreamt of being Roger’s babysitter for his twins. This is insane!!!

  20. Yeah Dippy, too much beer i guess 😉 Anything for Federer!
    My predictions are as bold as nature can be!!! Almagro to take out Djoker! Thiem to take out Nadal !!!
    I’m not even letting them get to the quarterfinals!!!
    And Jonathan , in my last chat, I was comparing both tourneys (Morroco & Houston). Pity Dzumbur lost steam at the end to Klizan, but I remember following Klizan when he was really up there, thought he should have broken into the top 20 by now.
    Brgds

    1. Shhh…..don’t let others know that I have been drowning my sorrow in beer 🙂 I like your bold predictions, lets make this happen man

    2. When was Klizan really up there? He was a promising junior but hasn’t done much. Never higher than 26th in the world. He has a pretty big game but very high risk. Enjoyed when he beat Nadal not long back.

  21. Jeez, sorry I meant Albert – Ramos Vinolas to take out Djoker.
    Then Jonathan, with regards to the color codes on Tigermobiles, I see no such thing. No color codes for me when Andreas Haider Maurer won against Gulbis. Well , unless the colors used are kinda seen through a special water glass 😉

    1. Nah, you will have picked Almagro, he was replaced in the draw by Ramos because he withdrew.

      You won’t see any colours because the leaderboard hasn’t been updated, they show once all Round 1, 2 etc matches are complete. It doesn’t update on a match by match basis I don’t think.

      1. Geez – we can’t even keep straight who’s IN the draw, let alone who’s going to win! 😆

      2. Almagro was due to play a qualifier. He withdrew and was replaced in the draw by Albert Vinolas who was a qualifier. The qualifying spot then went to Istomin as a LL, who was then replaced by Haase.

        Basically if you picked Almagro on the Tiger Mobiles game, you now have Ramos as your pick.

      3. Cripes, I thought it was the other way around. It should be the other way around. Aren’t withdrawals replaced by LLs?

        Whoever it was, hopefully I had them going out in the next round anyway 😉

  22. Lool, Tigermobiles pls update on a match by match basis.
    Djoker plays tomorrow , I guess I will know too soon if I would be taking tequila or vinegar.
    I’m gonna hv to sue tigermobiles very soon. They Shda told me when Almagro wasn’t an option anymore #grrrr
    Wawrinka had been very much under the radar , for goodness sakes, he’s the defending champion #whew

  23. “Federer is holding service games too quick. Should get a time violation. Not fair on the opponent”

    Good one Jon 🙂

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Close