ATP Masters 1000Indian WellsRoger Federer

Indian Wells Draw 2019: Potential All Swiss Clash in Round Three

See Roger Federer's Projected BNP Paribas Open Draw

The BNP Paribas Open draw took place yesterday and there are quite a few interesting early encounters on the cards, notably a potential third round between Novak Djokovic and the newly crowned Acapulco champion Nick Kyrgios. 

As for Roger Federer, he could face fellow countryman Stan Wawrinka at the same stage of the first ATP Masters 1000 event of the year. You can see his projected opponents below.

Roger's Federer's Projected Opponents in Indian Wells

  • Round 1: Bye
  • Round 2: Andreas Seppi
  • Round 3: Stan Wawrinka / Marton Fucsovics
  • Round 4: Fabio Fognini / Francis Tiafoe / Kyle Edmund
  • Quarter Finals: Kei Nishikori
  • Semi-Finals: Rafael Nadal
  • Finals: Novak Djokovic

Full printable PDF draw

Full 1st Round Draw

Player 1 Player 2
Novak Djokovic Bye
Bjorn Fratangelo Elias Ymer
Pierre-Hugues Herbert Philipp Kohlschreiber
Bye Nick Kyrgios
Gael Monfils Bye
Reilly Opelka Leonardo Mayer
Damir Dzumhur Albert Ramos-Vinolas
Bye Marco Cecchinato
Borna Coric Bye
Ivo Karlovic Matthew Ebden
Prajnesh Gunneswaran Benoit Paire
Bye Nikoloz Basilashvili
Gilles Simon Bye
Bradley Klahn Malek Jaziri
Federico Delbonis Jordan Thompson
Bye Dominic Thiem
Alexander Zverev Bye
Martin Klizan Mischa Zverev
John Millman Jan-Lennard Struff
Bye Grigor Dimitrov
Alex de Minaur Bye
Marcos Giron Jeremy Chardy
Matteo Berrettini Sam Querrey
Bye Milos Raonic
Stefanos Tsitsipas Bye
Felix Auger-Aliassime Cameron Norrie
Denis Kudla Yoshihito Nishioka
Bye Roberto Bautista Agut
Laslo Djere Bye
Ilya Ivashka Guido Andreozzi
Maximilian Marterer Ugo Humbert
Bye Kevin Anderson
Kei Nishikori Bye
Tennys Sandgren Adrian Mannarino
Donald Young Hubert Hurkacz
Bye Lucas Pouille
Denis Shapovalov Bye
Taylor Fritz Steve Johnson
Taro Daniel Dusan Lajovic
Bye Marin Cilic
Fabio Fognini Bye
Marius Copil Radu Albot
Nicolas Jarry Frances Tiafoe
Bye Kyle Edmund
Marton Fucsovics Bye
Daniel Evans Stan Wawrinka
Peter Gojowczyk Andreas Seppi
Bye Roger Federer
John Isner Bye
Jaume Munar Alexei Popyrin
Ernests Gulbis Alex Bolt
Bye Guido Pella
Pablo Carreno Busta Bye
Robin Haase Denis Istomin
Tomas Berdych Feliciano Lopez
Bye Karen Khachanov
Daniil Medvedev Bye
Mackenzie McDonald Joao Sousa
Mikhail Kukushkin Filip Krajinovic
Bye David Goffin
Diego Schwartzman Bye
Roberto Carballes Baena Ryan Harrison
Tatsuma Ito Jared Donaldson
Bye Rafael Nadal

Thoughts on the Draw

federer indian wells 2019

After the customary bye, Roger will face Peter Gojowczyk after the German defeated Andreas Seppi in the first round. Roger played Gojowczyk for the first time last year in Cincinnati, winning 6-4, 6-4.  I've only seen him play a couple of times but he hits a fairly flat ball and goes for his shots but I can't see him causing Fed too many problems.

Round 3 could then be fellow Swiss Stan Wawrinka but he first has to play a Qualifier in Round 1 and see off Marton Fucsovics in Round 2 which won't be easy.

The Hungarian showed he's in good form against Roger in Dubai so Stan won't have it all his own way even though he won both their matches last year on outdoor hard courts in Canada and Cincinnati respectively.

Personally, I'd like Stan to come through for a battle of the one-handed backhands and it's also a good yardstick for how well Roger is playing when those two face off. 

For round four Fognini is the top seed but he's been in poor form of late so Kyle Edmund looks to the pick given he won the Challenger Tournament here last week. He's going to be completely au fait with conditions in the desert and should be heading in with plenty of confidence.

They've practised together several times but Roger has never played the Brit and that could be an interesting matchup. Edmund is a dangerous player with a forehand that can do a lot of damage when he's got time to wind it up so it'd be a classic case of Federer trying to take all his time way.

Frances Tiafoe is also in this section but after making the Quarter Finals in Melbourne he's not backed it up with any meaningful results winning just one of his last four matches on tour. Can he beat Edmund should they meet? Maybe but I'd give Kedders the edge.

Should Roger make the fourth round the top seed in that section is Kei Nishikori who is difficult to predict as shown by his loss against Hurkacz in Dubai.

The Japanese has made the Quarter Finals twice at the Tennis Gardens so he's likely the favourite to come through his section. Sandgren and Mannarino aren't pushovers though in the second round and Pouille can also cause problems so it wouldn't be a total surprise to see him out early.

Cilic is the second highest seeded player in that quarter but his record in Indian Wells isn't up to much, making a solitary Quarter Final and he's not been past the third round in the last two years. Kei leads the H2H  9-6 so he'd be my pick to face Roger in the Quarters should the Swiss get there too. 

That too is usually an interesting matchup, last year's tussle in Shanghai was one of my favourite matches of the season and when Roger is on it movement wise he has too much in the arsenal for Kei who can't protect his serve well enough.

As for the semi-finals, Rafael Nadal is the seeded opponent and the Spaniard has an ok looking draw with an easy start against Donaldson or a Qualifier.

Isner, Khachanov, Medvedev Goffin, Schwartzman and Carreno Busta are in that section so there's potential for upsets. Isner is a former finalist and Busta, whom Roger practiced with today, played well in Indian Wells two years ago but Nadal usually does well in the desert, winning it three times so he's likely to come through assuming fully fit.

For the final, it's hard to look past Djokovic even though he's not played since winning in Melbourne. He does have a potential match with Kyrgios in Round 3 who leads the H2H 2-0 and the in-form Monfils is also in that section. So it's not all plain sailing but given his form and past performances in Indian Wells, he's tough to back against.

Zverev, Thiem and Dimitrov are all in the other quarter but I'd think Anderson has the best shot to perform well here as the conditions favour his game style. The question is whether he's over the elbow injury that affected at the Australian Open and saw him withdraw from the New York Open. If so he's my pick to make the semi-finals.

Expectations for Roger? Play free and attacking like his last two matches in Dubai and look to go deep.  As you can see from the picture below he's been trialling a new two backhand under the tutelage of Ivan Ljubicic which could prove the difference when it really comes to the crunch.

federer-2-handed-backhand

What are your thoughts on the draw? Let me know in the comments.

Jonathan

Huge fan of Roger Federer. I watch all his matches from Grand Slam level right down to ATP 250. When I'm not watching or tweeting about tennis I play regularly myself and use this blog to share my thoughts on Federer and tennis in general.

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87 Comments

  1. Looks to be exciting, whatever happens and anything could with Federer.
    Nice one on the new backhand, Jonathan, haha!
    Could someone (Jonathan?) explain something which has always puzzled me, why do they always have some byes, I would have thought they would have had no trouble getting 128 players.
    Nadal doesn’t seem to be very stretched (as always), we must pin our hopes on the erratic K.
    Thanks for the write-up, Jonathan, spot on.

    1. Just one of those things, I bet if you asked an ATP official you’d get a byzantine answer.

      I think mainly down to total prize money, scheduling that many matches in 11 days and just a reward for being a top player…

  2. I’m most afraid of Djoko of course. But as you say Rog is unpredictable. The new 2-BH a new piece of weapon in his huge surprise arsenal, exciting, can’t wait.

      1. I can tell from personal experience that deadpan humour doesn’t work well on the internet. You have to garnish it with a few smileys and stuff.

  3. Nice draw for Roger to make the semis at least. Would love to see him hit a few two handed backhands while beating Nadal in semis and Djoko in the finals πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

  4. Decent draw, he needs to reach final to stay at no4 otherwise he may drop back to no 6/7. Just fresh from Dubai win, should give him confidence to do well at IW,

  5. He is in the better half, IMO. I only wanted him to be as far away from Kyrgios as possible! I think ppl are assuming Nadal will breeze through. I do not agree.

    1. I agree with you.For a start he has Schwartzman early on,who hasn’t beaten him yet,but gives him problems,then perhaps Khachanov and Isner.Not his usual easy draw.

    2. 2 sets in 6 meets is not giving Nadal problems πŸ˜†

      I don’t think Nadal will breeze through, he rarely does, even in his prime his matches can appear tough or a set ultra close but he knows how to grind the big points to edge it. If fit I’m sure he will do ok.

      1. I would have to look this up, but I am fairly sure that Nadal has lost the match that he played AFTER Schwartzman.Thats what I mean by problems.He can soften him up ,as it were.Help,back into uncertain territory.?

  6. People are saying his first 3 rounds at Dubai were not par. But there were lots of upsets during that time. At least Fed wasn’t upset. – I haven’t seen any explanation why so many fell – ? Rog said something about very hard conditions. Wind maybe? Of course this is for both sides, so doesn’t explain really the huge falling of seeded players…(too much partying…? Balance injured?)

  7. Hey Jonathan,
    Time to change the weather. Actually, the weather doesn’t look too good. Raining right now. Cold for this time of year and rain for Monday. The evenings can be cold and windy. Bummer, I was looking forward to complain about the heat.
    I think his draw is pretty good. The top half is where most of the in form players are. Some good 2nd and 3rd round matches too.
    Looks like the conditions are slow with the ball sitting up. See all those new green seats? A couple of years ago, they installed all new blue seats. Then Larry Ellison decided he wanted all green like the new stadium two. So, they replaced blue seats that were new with green ones. And we wonder why the tickets prices more than doubled in a few years.

    1. Oh hey Sue, thanks for the onsite report. Bummer indeed about the weather, sorry to hear. It’s not so good news for our no-longer-youngman πŸ™ Hopefully it will improve soon?
      Have a great time stolking Fed and get a selfie with him!

    2. Shame about the weather.Fed pays the price for his popularity which means they schedule his matches
      for the evening when it is going to be cooler.I suppose it does mean that he doesn’t have to play in the
      heat of the day,but when there isn’t any…….

  8. 2HBH, hahahaha ? April fool already? Though not so ridiculous idea to hit a 2hbh shot to fool opponents. It’s about the time to introduce some new tactics, being while since SABR? Underarm serve, anyone? ?
    Thanks for the draw analysis, Jonathan. A tough (naturally as 1000) but decent one, I think. Hope the guys who did well last few weeks will continue doing well in the desert.

      1. Why not ,I bet Nadal would do it to him! But Nadal wouldn’t because Fed stands too far in to take serve.

  9. Stan in 3rd round is tricky, but I hope Roger carries the momentum from Dubai (and leaves the jet lag behind).
    Other than that pretty solid until the semis.

    2HBH is a joke but I miss the neo back hand. Rafa suffered 3 beatings in 10 weeks when Roger used that trick.

  10. I think that this is one of the best draws Fed has had for a while. Rather a shame (for Stan) that he has to clash with Fed early on, he does seem to get tough draws that stop him gaining confidence and momentum. The Djoker has a tough draw in the top half I think and I will be surprised if Nadal reaches the semis.

    1. πŸ™‚ this site generates so many articles
      If someone asks a question in press conf to Federer based on your tweet, then you have reached the pinnacle

    2. “Rumor” is also mentioned on the Instagram “Rogerfedererarmy2” which is followed by Severin Luthi. You’ve gone viral, Jonathan.

      1. Haha, I knew something was very wrong when fans were asking if it’s really true. I mean come on man, use your brain.

        Be hilarious if Luthi sees it.

    3. I see your head getting bigger by the minute. But, it should be your nose. This kind of news is what starts wars.
      I hope his team see this, definitely a good laugh,

      1. I don’t care if Jonathan’s head gets bigger but I DO care if Roger has his hair cut! He’s done it, hasn’t he…

    4. This is just truly funny, I’m loving this.
      Congratulations Jonathan. Classic example of the state of internet reactions.

  11. A decent draw but not many easy matches. Thanks Jonathan for your analysis. 2HBH? πŸ™‚ no, that doesn’t even look good on him πŸ™‚ . Let’s carry Dubai’s momentum to IW and hope that weather will be getting better.

  12. Honestly, that’s a great draw for Roger because if he keeps winning, and if he is in a good shape, it can boost a player’s morale and attitude so much. On the other side, it’s a challenging draw.

    Would like to actually see Roger surprising out of nowhere Djoker and Rafa with a 2HBH.
    πŸ˜€

  13. If, as you said, he is able to play & move freely as in his last two Dubai matches, He could have a good run here. Of course that’s almost always true of our Fed. Don’t know whether to hope Stan makes it through or not. Not to get ahead of ourselves though.

    Some surprises in the doubles draw- djoko & fog, really? When Djoko at least is going to be hoping for a deep run? Tsitsipas too – boy’s going to wear himself out.

    1. When I started watching tennis as late as end of 2013 it seemed normal for players to do double as well – even for Fed. It is my guess that Djoko might like to make a better figure in that area than he did in Laver Cup 2018 – or maybe train for Davis Cup and Tokyo somehow. Sasha does it also regularly with brother Misha, doesn’t he?

      1. Considering Sasha plays doubles quite often with his brother you might hope some of Mischas volleying ability might rub off on him.He is quite hopeless at the net and I think this is going to be a problem in the future.What I wonder has Lendl done to improve Saschas game?

      2. Plus it’s the length of the tournament, gives the players more time to fit it in without much stress, doesn’t it?

  14. Roger is going to enjoy the rest of 2019. Getting number 100 was probably his biggest goal for this year. Staying in the top ten is important for his morale I think but otherwise he can have fun the rest of the year. I am surprised that what Nick did in Acapulco isn’t done more often. I can make my serve just barely get over the net to make the other guy run to the net. This is not that hard when you practice the shot and it makes the other guy uncertain. Do it several times in a match and it can make a difference with these baseline players.

    1. Interesting. This IS sounding vaguely familiar. Love to see some of these names IN the doubles draw, btw – just surprised as for some of them I’d expect them to want to guard against fatigue.

  15. I missed Dubai, but it was heartening to hear that Roger has got his mojo back, and the forehand in particular was on song. It would be nice if he could carry that form forward. When his game periodically unravels so does my peace of mind. If they meet in the semis a 6th consecutive win over Nadal would be especially satisfying. But that’s a way ahead. And, please, no injuries – wrist or otherwise.

    1. I have a feeling,judging by his form in the later stages in Dubai,plus his draw here,that Fed is going to do well in Indian Wells.?

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