Hey all, the draw for Indian Wells has landed and it's another Larry Ellison special with a potential Fedal semi final meeting :). Roger will be bidding for a 5th title in the Californian desert and he has a reasonable draw with a potential quarter final meeting against Stan Wawrinka which would be a repeat of their 2013 encounter. You can see his projected opponents based on seeding below:
- Round 1: Bye
- Round 2: Jerzy Janowicz / Diego Schwartzman
- Round 3: Andreas Seppi / Mikhail Youzhny
- Round 4: Roberto Bautista-Agut
- Quarter Final: Stan Wawrinka
- Semi Final: Rafael Nadal / Milos Raonic
- Final: Novak Djokovic
Thoughts on Federer's Draw
Another typical Indian Wells draw really here and I think Fed has a pretty nice path to the latter stages. First up could be tricky if Janowicz has a good serving day but his form is patchy at best and it's not unthinkable that Schwartzman, who Roger defeated at last years French Open, could take out the Pole.
Into round 3 and Fed could have the chance to avenge his Australian Open loss to Andreas Seppi. But remember the stat that Leon pointed out in the comments and in live chat after the Dubai draw – Federer has never gone onto win a tournament when he's beaten Seppi in an earlier round. Time to buck the trend? 😀
The fourth round is seeded to be against RBA but I'd fancy Istomin to come through that one. Lenoardo Mayer is also in that section and under normal circumstances I'd give him a shot but considering he spent 6 hours grinding out a win on a clay court in the Davis Cup on Sunday he could be pretty drained.
As I mentioned above the Quarter Final projected is Stan but he could have to see off Karlovic and Berdych en route. I think Stan handles Karlovic quite easily because of how he returns serve and he's manhandled Bercdych in some of their previous meetings so if Stan plays to his level I think he makes it.
After that the Federer Nadal semi final looms which would be the 34th meeting between the two. It's been a while since they played each other so it'd be an interesting one should they both make it. Nadal is coming in fresh off his first title of the year in Buenos Aires. It was a weak fielded event but we saw a few years ago what winning Stockholm did to Fed when he was low on confidence so he could be back in form. I actually fancy Raonic to stop him though if they meet, big servers can definitely do well on this surface as Isner showed by making the final in 2012 and Kevin Anderson is another potential threat to anyone in the draw if he can hold it together mentally.
With Djokovic been in the opposite side of the draw he's of course the seeded final opponent and will be looking to defend his title. But we'll cross that bridge if it comes to it 🙂 one match at a time.
Elsewhere in the Draw
Djokovic and Murray are both in the opposite half and Djokovic has some potentially trick matches against Kevin Anderson and David Ferrer in the Quarter Final. Ferrer is on a good winning streak but his performances in Indian Wells over the years haven't been great, in fact his best ever performance is the Quarters in 2007. Not sure why that is but most likely the combination of the slow-ish surface but desert air making the balls fly is not to his liking.
Murray is coming in off 2 Davis Cup singles wins in Glasgow but his form on the ATP tour has been poor after making the finals at the Australian Open in January. He could face Pospisil or Kukushkin in his first match who are both capable of causing an upset. Nishikori is also his seeded quarter final opponent and that could be an interesting match if it happens. Battle of who takes advantage of the second serve.
- Tomic to beat Ferrer 3rd Round
- Donald Young to progress the furthest of all Americans
- Federer to make the semi finals
- Raonic to take out Nadal (Simon will push him in the 4th Round)
- Robredo to take out Dimitrov
What do you guys think?
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