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Indian Wells Draw 2015

Indian Wells Draw 2015: Federer to Open against Janowicz or Schwartzman

Hey all, the draw for Indian Wells has landed and it's another Larry Ellison special with a potential Fedal semi final meeting :). Roger will be bidding for a 5th title in the Californian desert and he has a reasonable draw with a potential quarter final meeting against Stan Wawrinka which would be a repeat of their 2013 encounter. You can see his projected opponents based on seeding below:

Projected Opponents

  • Round 1: Bye
  • Round 2: Jerzy Janowicz / Diego Schwartzman
  • Round 3: Andreas Seppi / Mikhail Youzhny
  • Round 4: Roberto Bautista-Agut
  • Quarter Final: Stan Wawrinka
  • Semi Final: Rafael Nadal / Milos Raonic
  • Final: Novak Djokovic

Full .PDF draw.

Thoughts on Federer's Draw

Federer Indian Wells 2014

Another typical Indian Wells draw really here and I think Fed has a pretty nice path to the latter stages. First up could be tricky if Janowicz has a good serving day but his form is patchy at best and it's not unthinkable that Schwartzman, who Roger defeated at last years French Open, could take out the Pole.

Into round 3 and Fed could have the chance to avenge his Australian Open loss to Andreas Seppi. But remember the stat that Leon pointed out in the comments and in live chat after the Dubai draw – Federer has never gone onto win a tournament when he's beaten Seppi in an earlier round. Time to buck the trend? πŸ˜€

The fourth round is seeded to be against RBA but I'd fancy Istomin to come through that one. Lenoardo Mayer is also in that section and under normal circumstances I'd give him a shot but considering he spent 6 hours grinding out a win on a clay court in the Davis Cup on Sunday he could be pretty drained.

As I mentioned above the Quarter Final projected is Stan but he could have to see off Karlovic and Berdych en route. I think Stan handles Karlovic quite easily because of how he returns serve and he's manhandled Bercdych in some of their previous meetings so if Stan plays to his level I think he makes it.

After that the Federer Nadal semi final looms which would be the 34th meeting between the two. It's been a while since they played each other so it'd be an interesting one should they both make it. Nadal is coming in fresh off his first title of the year in Buenos Aires. It was a weak fielded event but we saw a few years ago what winning Stockholm did to Fed when he was low on confidence so he could be back in form. I actually fancy Raonic to stop him though if they meet, big servers can definitely do well on this surface as Isner showed by making the final in 2012 and Kevin Anderson is another potential threat to anyone in the draw if he can hold it together mentally.

With Djokovic been in the opposite side of the draw he's of course the seeded final opponent and will be looking to defend his title. But we'll cross that bridge if it comes to it πŸ™‚ one match at a time.

Elsewhere in the Draw

Djokovic and Murray are both in the opposite half and Djokovic has some potentially trick matches against Kevin Anderson and David Ferrer in the Quarter Final. Ferrer is on a good winning streak but his performances in Indian Wells over the years haven't been great, in fact his best ever performance is the Quarters in 2007. Not sure why that is but most likely the combination of the slow-ish surface but desert air making the balls fly is not to his liking.

Murray is coming in off 2 Davis Cup singles wins in Glasgow but his form on the ATP tour has been poor after making the finals at the Australian Open in January. He could face Pospisil or Kukushkin in his first match who are both capable of causing an upset. Nishikori is also his seeded quarter final opponent and that could be an interesting match if it happens. Battle of who takes advantage of the second serve.

Predictions

  • Tomic to beat Ferrer 3rd Round
  • Donald Young to progress the furthest of all Americans
  • Federer to make the semi finals
  • Raonic to take out Nadal (Simon will push him in the 4th Round)
  • Robredo to take out Dimitrov

What do you guys think?

PS Remember to fill your Tiger Mobiles Tennis Challenge Predictions and join the peRFect Tennis league if you haven't already πŸ™‚

About Jonathan

Huge fan of Roger Federer - I'll pretty much try and watch all his matches from Grand Slam level right down to ATP 250. When I'm not watching or tweeting about tennis I play regularly myself and use this blog to share my thoughts on Fed and tennis in general.

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128 comments

  1. Hopefully a fifth title for the GOAT πŸ˜‰

  2. AAAARRRGGGHHHH late agaiiiin…

    ok, time to make prediction and submit it to Tiger

  3. Would love to see a Roger Rafa semi. Roger is playing great aggressive tennis and with the new racquet they only played once in Melbourne and that was when Roger was only finding his way back. I don’t know how much slower Indian Wells be to Dubai but Roger has always done well here.

  4. Rafael Nadal will surpass my Grand Slam tally: Roger Federer
    http://www.sportskeeda.com/tennis/rafael-nadal-will-surpass-my-grand-slam-tally-roger-federer/

    What the hell???

    • That’s a misquote. He said that if Nadal won a few more French Opens, he would have a shot. An obvious reply as opposed to the alternative – “No Nadal will never reach my slam tally”, which would be naive

    • Fed being realistic as usual and fans getting scared πŸ˜†

    • Sid TheCookieThief

      Realistic, considering yet again, Nadal is focused on the clay season. The only way he passed Fed is by winning at least two more French Opens. I’m putting Nadal at 17, at best, with 11 French Opens. If that were to happen, the GOAT debate would be over, I mean, that would establish Fed as the GOAT, and Nadal as the dirt GOAT, as if he already isn’t one.

    • Yeah, it’s just an “if a) and if b), then c)” statement – both a) and b) having to be satisfied. Nice bit of jinxing there by Roger?

    • Not sure what’s wrong with this. Assuming that Fed doesn’t win another slam, it’s highly likely Nadal will equal or surpass him. In the end, no matter what happens, Roger will still surpass Rafa as a tennis player and person.

  5. no way Tommy takes out Grigor, he has really declined of late. i am picking Simon or Milos to defeat Nadal.
    Fed to start slowish but to pick up as tourney progresses and make the final again…..I am picking Muzza or Kei to make other end, but all Dc players will be a tad weary!. No doubt all wrong, but worth a bet!
    Exho was not that pretty, Fed looked in 1st gear throughout whereas Dimi desperate to win!
    Gaby looks amazing! What is she on??

    • Hi Susie…Gaby did look amazing – and she’s 44 – unbelievable. And from what I’ve read, she’s also playing really well – I’ve heard our Feds had a bit of a crush on her at one time.

      I’m agreeing with you on Grigor, I don’t think Tommy will take him out either – I know it was only an exho, but from these youtube highlights: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9S1vkQ_rhQU he looked as though he was playing very well, and perhaps a little more comfortable with *his* new racquet?

      And I know Ferrer has been working hard, but please not Tomic the Rat – can’t stand that guy, although I acknowledge that he has been doing much better of late.

      I have to say Nadal has not impressed lately, and that little tournie he just won had no one: Berlocq SF and Monaco F…really. Again I agree Sue, wouldn’t be surprised to see Simon take him out, or Raonic on this court.

      Feds for another final…oh yes! πŸ™‚

    • Boredo can come good in Indian Wells, let’s see if his decline is eternal or he’s going to hit back πŸ˜‰

      You can’t read anything into an Exho in terms of form. But you can read into winning titles like Nadal has done which gives huge confidence to a player. Like I said above Fed in Stockholm did the same thing.

  6. Tricky draw to be honest and it get worse from the quarters. Will another Mirka-gate happen? Its going to be brutal 3 set match against Stan and if he wins that. Nadal will happily blast him off court for the millionth time. Roger its time to move the H2H needle in your favor pleaseeee……

  7. so Bjorkman, another Swede(!) joins MUzza….. thoughts people!?

  8. Just read this comment by Federer. I really hope I can play till Rio. Maybe I could reach that tournament. The reality just dawned on me that there may not be as much time of peRFection left as I had, up till this moment, taken for granted. And I just felt really down. Bah.

    β€œI really hope I can play β€˜til Rio. It’s not my No. 1 goal, my No. 2 goal, it’s just something I said maybe I could reach that tournament and see how it goes,” Federer said. β€œBut I’ve love to compete in it and if I do, win a medal for Switzerland.”

  9. Any takeaways from the MSG exho loss? I heard it was a pretty serious affair.

    • It was, but considering that Federer has lost to Roddick and Sampras in exhos before besides beating Rafa in other exhos, I would not consider this to be anywhere close to the real match. I think it has a lot to do with first serves. I am sure Roger has played enough exhos to realize that people want a spectacle and a competitive match and he gives it to them: by going easy on his first serves or going for the full blooded ones less often. I mean, you don’t want to see this one guy holding serve to love and 15 every single game especially in an exhibition match right ? Dimitrov on the other hand must have gone all out and considering that there must have been no pressure on him, played some free swinging tennis; something that deserts him in pressure situations in matches of consequence.

      • Sid TheCookieThief

        [something that deserts him in pressure situations in matches of consequence.]

        Absolutely perfectly put! It makes all the difference.

        And I’m going to paraphrase a passage from Nadal’s book, although I hate that guy,

        “If you were to watch the No.1 player and the No.100 player in the world during a hitting session, you will hardly see any difference between the two. But in a match, you will see the difference of 100.”

      • Wonder who wrote that for him? πŸ˜†

      • Sid TheCookieThief

        Probably not his own words, most of the book anyways, but conveys the point :-
        ). Unless of course you implied something else.

      • I just meant I doubt he wrote much himself. I hope Fed never brings out a book.

    • It was an exho, there are no takeaways.

    • Not at all, actually the past few times the runner up of this event goes on to win Indian Wells so…

  10. You assume that Stan will lose to RF in the Quarters but I am not so sure ! He almost beat RF at the WTF and was defeated only by Djokovic that too in 5 sets at the Aussie Open and has also been practicing with none other than Rafa at Indian Wells. Rest assured, he is going to be a massive threat. Also, Raonic taking out Rafa seems like a possibility on paper especially keeping in mind that Ljubicic won this event in 2010 beating Rafa in the finals but somehow Rafa loves this event having won it four times in the past so its hard to expect Raonic to beat Rafa. My prediction is that Stan finally manages to overcome Roger on a surface other than a claycourt and then lose to Rafa in the following match. Then, Djokovic beats Rafa for the 20th time in the final !

    • Rafa has won three times, not four – 2013 was an exceptional year for him, before that 2009, and I think you’ll agree that he’s nowhere near his 2013 self – at least judging by what we’ve seen so far this year. So I don’t see him making the finals.

      On Stan, yes, if he’s feeling confident, it’s perfectly possible that he could take out Feds; he did it at Monte Carlo, and almost repeated at WTF, so he’s capable.

      Are these your picks for Tiger?

      • I think in typical Rafa style, I see him either crash and burn early or go all the way because he is a player who relies a lot on momentum. One good match against Raonic for example could set him up quite nicely for anybody he might face in the semis. I for one am pulling for Rafa to meet Roger in the semis where I think Roger has a chance of taking him out and improve the H2H for what it is worth.

      • Last time he beat Rafa was Indian Wells 2012, and he then went on to win Wimbledon – so perhaps we should all wish for this to happen!

    • Where did I put that Fed beats Stan? They aren’t drawn in the 1st round πŸ™‚

      I predict Fed makes Semi Finals but we shall see.

  11. Just saw the Dimi-Roger highlights. Is this the centre court of the IW tourney? It looked prettty fast compared to what we’ve seen before in IW. Ball was also keeping low. Good for Roger?

  12. The draw is finally released and I wasn’t surprise at all
    Larry Ellison will always use his power and privilege to put Nadal and Federer in the same half, he always do
    but again, this potential clash might not happen mainly because of Nadal’s recent performances. should that happen, I will be exited to see another Fedal match
    should be interesting encounter.
    Moreover, the Seppi Vs Fed would be an interesting match I would like to see

  13. Well it looks like you were right about Mayer, Jonathan – he’s withdrawn with foot issues. Roger was quoted in the Argentinian press saying he was sure the DC win would be a central moment in Mayer’s life & career. I was hoping we’d get to see that here, but apparently not. Pity he couldn’t have decided he wasn’t up to it before the draw was made.

    There are still another couple of fascinating R1 matches featuring last week’s great performers in DC – Kukushkin/Pospisil, Kokkinakis/Struff.

    As for Roger – I think the main thing, as always really, is Which Roger shows up? Hope he’s gotten whatever angst out he needed to with his comments in NY, & he’s playing freely when we get started.

    • Definitely a big win against their national rivals but I bet Mayer would take any sort of title over that.

      DC such a tired format. Wouldn’t even make it into my top 10 of Fed achievements I don’t think.

      Would be interesting to see where Fed places it truly too, rather than when giving an interview etc. But we’ll never know unless I get an invite to Wollerau and take Fed on a bar crawl.

      • Does he still live there? I thought the new place was somewhere else.

      • If they don’t want to revamp the DC format, why can’t they at least make it bi-annual or something?

      • Wollerau is where his new flat / glass fronted house is that looks over Lake Zurich. It’s the one where he was unhappy that the press were publishing photos of late last year. Favourable tax rate district πŸ˜‰

        There’s a chalet in Lenzerheide too where he had that neighbour dispute thing about climbing frames.

        He also bought a big chunk of land in Herrliberg which is across from Wollerau but dunno if it has been developed…

        Apartment in Dubai too. Dunno if any others. I guess he could have a few buy to let’s if Godsick or whoever manages his finances in Switzerland is into that kind of thing.

      • Ah, okay. I didn’t realise there were 2 different places involved.

  14. As for Tiger Mobiles – doesn’t look like they’ve changed much. You can see top 25 instead of only top 10, but no more. You can at least once again see your own ranking – though not how many others are tied at the same points, since you can’t see the full leaderboard.

    They don’t tell you when cutoff is for selections to be saved – how about a countdown clock, so as not to get into time zone confusions? And they don’t tell you when they’ll be replacing the “Qualifier” entries with the name of the actual qualifier who’s in that slot. Of course they can’t do that yet, qualifying isn’t over till later today.

    You still can’t see actual results next to your own predictions.

    Pity.

    • Countdown clock is a good idea. Did you fill out the feedback form thing I put up for it before?

      In their email announcing the draw was open it said:

      “You have until 11.00am PDT local time (GMT -7 so 6pm in the UK) on Thursday 12th March to make them. Once the first tournament ball is struck the round closes and no more entries / changes can be made.

      Qualifier names will be added into the draw once we know them on Wednesday the 11th.”

      • I had commented on the other thread you said you referred them to, but I don’t think I had thought of a countdown clock yet at that point.

        Very bad about checking my email ::blush:: – will also suggest they repeat that on the site!

      • I think it’s still open to fill out for feedback. Follow them on Twitter as it gets updated with tournament updates like withdrawals etc. Just seen Muller moves into Mayer’s spot.

  15. Jonathan is again underestimating Dimi. Should Raonic-dimi happen I would fancy dimi’s chances. He is far more complete player to me. And what about Nishikori? If e’s fit, he can also take Nole to reach finals.

    • I am going on form and previous results at Indian Wells. Dimitrov even skipped Indian Wells in 2011 to play a challenger or something. Of course he was lower ranked not automatically in the draw etc but surprising decision to pick a Challenger over a M1000.

      If Dimitrov plays to somewhere near the level he is capable of then he can of course take out Raonic and all those before him but we’ll see…

      • I don’t think Dimi has reached his potential yet, but its taking him too much time! he is what now, 24 yr old? he should have won M1000 event by now with the talent he has.
        if they happen to meet, I fancy Roanic just because I don’t think Dimi is ready yet to take next step, although he has what it takes.

      • I agree Raonic is streets ahead right now IMO.

  16. Fed playing doubles with Lammer. Lots of players playing doubles. Exciting. Theyèll put Fed on Stadium 2 for doubles and it will packed to the rafters.
    Super hot down there. Getting into the mid thirties.

    • Yeah saw that, first round exist most likely with Lammer.

    • & Stan is playing with Kubot (?!)

      Silly doubles draw – two really legitimate pairings meet each other in first round: Bolelli/Fognini vs. Benneteau/R-Vasselin. In fact aren’t they both Slam-winning teams? Yes, the Frenchmen won RG last year, & the Italians just won AO a few months ago.

      Pospisil/Sock back together too.

  17. Are you playing the Tiger Mobiles challenge Jonathan? I can’t find your name!

    • I’m not in the peRFect Tennis League, can’t go winning the prizes for the end of year winner of it πŸ™‚

      • But can’t you at least participate? πŸ™ You can request to make yourself invalid for prizes if you win!

      • I mean peRFect Tennis prizes for the leaderboard, suppose I could just void my entry if I finish in top 3, can’t remember what positions I said I’d give prizes for tbh.

        Playing the main thing though, I’ll gladly take an iPhone and a MacBook pro πŸ˜†

      • I can’t find your name though? Are you playing under ‘Jonathan’?

      • Damn. I forgot to make my predictions in time.

        Regarding the prizes- How about Macbook Pros (Retina display ofcourse) to the top 10? πŸ˜›

  18. Indian Wells feels like a mini slam so it’s always exciting when it comes around. Haha typical Larry special with that Fedal setup as you said! Would like that one to happen actually, both coming off titles… My prediction is Nishikori taking out Djoker and losing to Fed in the final. Hope everyone who is attending has a fabulous time. Allez!

  19. Love IW! Great landscape, nice resort feeling. Wish I could go there one day to see Fed…but time is running out for me πŸ™ Anybody knows how many times IW had Fedal in the draw? Personally I don’t need to see Rafa anymore, sorry, shamtoot πŸ˜‰ but I don’t mind if it would be like 2012 and I can see Fed’s chance if they meet.

    Yeah, I like Alysha’s prediction, too. Tomic to beat Ferrer? Haha, wow that’s random one, Jonathan. Yet, it’s an excellent draw analysis as always. By the way, is your Tiger challenge parallel to your prediction, too?

    • in one condition Wanda, IW in exchange for Wimbledon πŸ˜‰ and I don’t mind if he bagel him as well, how about that πŸ™‚

      • Aha, comes with a bagel? Nice trade thanks but no, you better stick to the clay and I take the grass any time, shamtoot πŸ˜‰

    • I don’t really like it that much from some of the pictures, but I’m not really big fan of American landscapes, all very arid looking.

      Facilities look top class though and the centre looks great from the aerial view. Although I get the impression it is very resort like and if it wasn’t a tennis centre it’d be a landfill site πŸ˜†

    • Ferrer in IW is poor but now Tomic has some drugs scandal in the news he’ll probably flop πŸ˜€

  20. The draw looks tough for Roger, but I guess draws don’t really matter much in his case nowadays. One bad day even against a supposedly “easy” opponent and he’s out, or goes through even the toughest draw like in Dubai without dropping a set. One match at a time!
    Hope he gets at least one win at doubles, seems like he really wants Lammer to see the big stage.
    BTW have you guys seen this-
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnX8ONFnP94&feature=youtu.be
    Roger’s jump is pretty cool!

  21. BTW, did anyone look at that video of the kid lobbing Roger at MSG that Roger posted on his Twitter feed? It didn’t look much like a fluke to me!

    • It looked staged. The kid had a racket of his own. No way you pick a random guy from the crowd and he hits like that. All the “Roger Federer humiliated”, “Federer left red-faced” headlines are so amusing. There are people who actually believe that was a real point.
      But the kid held his nerves and didn’t miss any shot, plus has a memory for lifetime. Good for him.

      • Well, staged, sure, but are you seriously telling me that lob was somehow a fake? Right inside the baseline.

    • Damn, I was planning on taking my racquet the next time I go watch him live in the hope I get called onto court πŸ™ now I see that you’re saying it was all pre-selected.

  22. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P03Y1_UfrKw&feature=youtu.be
    Nice tribute! Let’s have a toast for Fed!!

  23. Haha Janowicz crashes out. Helps Federer yeah!

    • Not good for me, because I picked him to play Fed in the Tiger Mobiles challenge!

      • Me too Conal…didn’t know much about Schwartzman, but I thought Janowicz had enough to beat him at least…Janowicz has really slipped big time.

    • You guys need to read my posts in more detail πŸ˜†

      ” it’s not unthinkable that Schwartzman, who Roger defeated at last years French Open, could take out the Pole.”

      I put it out there but no takers.

      • Schwartzman has been doing rather well recently, but I don’t think Janowicz has been, so I’m not very surprised at the result. He’s certainly not the same player that Fed beat at the FO, and I think Fed was pretty complimentary about him back then.

      • I didn’t remember doing this, but I see I actually had Schwartzman through in the Tiger Mobiles. He-he!

      • Hahaha…not paying attention to teacher – having watched (bits of) the Ferrer struggle against Dodig, I’m wondering whether you might also prove right (again!) about Tomic (although that drugs thing might lead to loss of focus as you said earlier). I still hope not though.

  24. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Co3Wk28OgdM

    Has anyone noticed how far back Fed stands from the baseline while practicing as opposed to his court positioning in match play? It’s quite a huge difference. And it’s in every practice session. Interesting.

    Side note: How does he make it look so effortless? Really unfair. I’ve been trying to improve my backswing (on my own by just watching his videos over and over), and just correcting the unit turn and managing to make sure that the left arm is out parallel to the baseline each and every time (which seems to effortless while just holding the racket) is so hard to implement.

    In case anyone’s interested, notes to my self when I get on to court tomorrow (assuming it doesn’t rain on the one day in the week I get to play):
    – Ensure unit turn. Rotate your effin’ upper body. More. Much more. Much much much more.
    – Pull the racket back. Don’t just drop it down. Get that C motion.
    – Stick that damn left arm out. Parallel to the baseline.
    – Bend your bloody knees
    – Cock your wrist back unless I want my motion starts to resemble the older generation’s stiff wrist Eastern forehand.
    – Hit the ball in front of you and not 2 kilometers behind your body.
    – Try and keep your arm as straight as possible on contact.
    – Eye on the ball!!!!!!!!!
    – Proper follow through.
    – Watch ball as it flies past the fence due to temporary technique revamping difficulties.
    – Contemplate smacking racket against ground.
    – Remember just in time that you no longer work at McKinsey and Company and are now a poor musician.
    – Decide against throwing racket.

    • Cock your wrist back unless I want my motion to start resembling the older generation’s stiff wrist Eastern forehand.

    • Oke Gaurav… let me tell you what I saw in this clip:

      1) Roger is amazing.

      2) What is up with that bald spot on your head Roger?? Muzza also has one, now you too?? (And don’t let me start on the (lack of) hair of you know who πŸ™‚
      Are you going bald on me Goat?? Please don’t πŸ™‚ But…. to be honest…. I think you are not going bald, but you just have to comb your hair better πŸ™‚

      Roger, you know what is as amazing as you are??? Your hair and your curls πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

    • Sid TheCookieThief

      All that is fine Gaurav, but the moment you go down 15-30 serving a 3-4, all those things go out the window πŸ˜‰ I didn’t read most of it though, I confess.

    • Haha!! Exactly same story for me! What about the SHBH case?

  25. http://www.theroar.com.au/2015/03/14/myth-or-man-why-is-rafael-nadal-a-protected-species/

    Hey guys, I saw this article on Roger’s site. Any thoughts?? I think it is a true and fair and honest article. I agree with everything. Maybe not with Rafa being a “one surface wonder”, because he obviously is not that.
    But… honestly… I did not know that Rafa hasn’t beaten a top 10 player since last June. And I DID know that when Roger and Andy were going through that too…

    • I knew that Katyani, simply because I am follower πŸ˜‰
      And yes, he is struggling against top 10 since June (the AO match against berdych is simple example, he crashed him in that match) and I hope he finds his way in IW and yesterday match was a good sign actually. I hope he build his confidence from there (I know some people will be so upset now πŸ˜‰

    • i actually think the article is just a bit of sore bias. Nadal has barely had the chance to play a top 10 player since June. His injury troubles, real or not, have kept him mostly out of action, except for a couple of early round losses when he was clearly off the pace. The one real opportunity he’s had was berdy, and fair play to berdy, who was in incredible form.

      • totally agree with you John, but didn’t want to comment on the article content as I didn’t want to open another long discussion. but yes, its somehow bias but I agree with him in regards to the media part

  26. Anyone read Roger RT Lammer and got the heart skipped the beat?
    I seriously think that was Roger tweet and got a heart attack for a stupid second.

  27. Did anyone see the match? I just saw a 3 minute highlight clip and it looked like both were striking the ball extremely well. Some good rallies and the court seemed to be playing far quicker!

    • Hi Gaurav, the highlights might show it, but I thought generally fed was shanking a lot more than he should. His timing was definitely off, to the extent that he was getting frustrated when a double break up on the 2nd set

      • Not sure if its just me, but I thought Fed altered his service motion in the match judging by the highlights video. He seems to have less bend in his back during the motion, it seems slightly stiff and casual. Not sure if he is nursing some discomfort in his back.

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