Hamburg 2013 – Testing Draw for Federer
Hey guys, the draw for the German Open Tennis Championships in Hamburg is out and it’s a really strong field which will give Federer a very stern test if he’s to win the title here.
As you can see from the list of seeded players below this isn’t a mickey mouse field and there’s some very accomplished clay court players who can definitely test Roger.
The annoying thing for me is 12 months ago I’d be 100% confident he was flying through this draw to the title, but based on recent performances and knowing Roger isn’t at his confident best then this definitely won’t be easy.
- Roger Federer
- Tommy Haas
- Nicolas Almargo
- Jerzy Janowicz
- Juan Monaco
- Andreas Seppi
- Alexandr Dolgopolov
- Jeremy Chardy
- Benoit Paire
- Tommy Robredo
- Feliciano Lopez
- Fabio Fognini
- Mikhail Youzhny
- Fernando Verdasco
- Ernests Gulbis
- Martin Klizan
Federer’s Potential Opponents
- Round One: Bye
- Round Two: Brands
- Round Three: Gulbis
- Quarter Final: Dolgopolov / Lopez
- Semi Final: Janowicz
- Final: Haas / Almagro
Full draw available to download here.
First up for Roger is likely to be the guy who troubled Nadal at the French Open; Daniel Brands. He’s a heavy hitting German so is always a danger but I can’t see him causing Roger too many problems as his return of serve isn’t up to scratch and he plays a much different style of play to Nadal so I don’t think he will be replicating the damage he was able to cause with his forehand against Rafa.
Round Three is a tricky one though with Gulbis the likely opponent, he’s of course had success on clay against Roger before in Rome back in 2010 and definitely has the type of game that can produce upsets on his day. I’d be surprised if Roger loses to Gulbis though and I think he will beat him in straights should they meet, he just has to play a tactically smart match and make sure he’s not getting into a hitting contest or playing to Gulbis’s strengths.
The Quarter Final shouldn’t be too difficult as it’s likely to be either Dolgopolov or Lopez, both those guys are good players but Fed should see them off without having to come up with his A game as they don’t really have any big weapons which is a nice situation to be in.
The Semi Final is seeded to be against Wimbledon Semi Finalist Jerzy Janowicz whom Roger defeated earlier this year in Rome. Janowicz has a huge game with a huge serve which make him a testing opponent. To be honest though I don’t think he’s making it to the semi finals and my pick would be Verdasco to make it instead.
The final could then be against Haas or Almagro, Haas lost early in Stuttgart to Fognini so he may be slightly out of form but again in front of his own crowd he can be a danger. Almagro is confident on clay courts but if Roger makes the final I back him to win it.
Verdasco Back into Form?
As I predicted above I see Verdasco meeting Roger in the semi finals as he’s definitely in a rich vein of form, he should have beaten Murray at Wimbledon and now has a chance for a title in Bastad after he beat Dimitrov in the semi finals there.
I see him beating Janowicz which would be a gift for Roger has I think Janowicz is more of a threat than Verdasco to him as the Spaniard doesn’t have the style of game to defeat Federer making him an ideal opponent.
Expectations for Federer
This is the first time Fed is stepping on court since his defeat to Stakhovsky so it’s difficult to know what to expect from him, I’d imagine he rested for a few days after the loss, stayed in Wimbledon for a couple of days before returning back to Switzerland and then hit the practice courts.
I think he has to make the final here to consider it a successful tournament, anything less and there are still going to be question marks against his form. After the season so far confidence has been in short supply so I think he has to get back to winning ways ahead of an important stretch, it’s the last slam of the year soon so I’d like to see a strong showing from him there.
I think the opening 2 matches will be tricky, but if Fed can make the final I make him odds on favourite to take the title.
What are your expectations for Roger in Hamburg? Can he take the title?
First! I guess it all depends on his confidence which can be unpredictable at this point. Quite a good field. Not an easy draw. All the best for Roger!
Nice 🙂
Yeah it’s tough to know what to expect, I can’t imagine Stakhovsky has done any lasting damage as it wasn’t that kind of match, maybe he comes out and plays lights out from the get go. Hope so!
Jonathan
I believe in Roger and I think he find his groove again. I’m actually excited to see how he plays and I hope his loss at Wimbledon will put that extra fire in his heart and keep him focused and back to his winning, dominating form. This year’s Wimbledon was the most boring grand slam ever, with the exception of Del Potro and Verdasco playing so well even though lost. Federer needs to regain his confidence and Hamburg will be a great start for him to start rebuilding. GO MAESTRO!
Me too man, seems like a long time ago since he last played. Wimbedon almost feels like it didn’t happen.
Wow, so hard to predict. I’ll be watching with guarded excitement. I think Roger puts a lot more pressure on himself then he wants to let on and I just hope he can find that inner confidence to build on especially going forward to the USO. I won’t be able to watch until Thursday but I sure look forward to seeing Roger! Thanks for your pre-tournament post!
Cool, I’m guessing his first match won’t be till Wednesday anyway so you won’t miss too much!
Considering the poor season Feds had by his standards, i really hope he comes back firing on all cylinders!! Some good players and definately would like to see Fed play good and show fighting spirit and at least get to final. Anything less will be dissapointing as he desperately needs the wins. This will be interesting as after a couple matches we will be able see where Federers levels at and if he will have at least some impact for the US hardcourt.
I think Federer should be ok as he’ll be looking to put in good performance. So hears hoping to another 1 or 2 titles and show people why he is GOAT. Come on Roger . 🙂
Yeah, I guess the reason he’s playing is to find form and get back into the groove so hope it works out for him.
Tough scenario though as like you I think anything less than final will be disappointing.
Allez!
Olá Jon!
Good lineup for Rogi to get some confidence and ranking points.
Don’t know if he will win Hamburg but if he does, already one step closer to reaching high level for the USOpen, which is his priority for this part of the season.
Verdasco could be a tough match in this surface once he is doing his best since he beat Baloonal at Madrid’s blue clay.
Allezzzz, Rogi!
Hola!
Me either, I think he has to make the final though, this is a small tournament by his standards so gotta put up a good show I think.
Baloonal lol. Fed usually owns Fiasco though so I’m not worried about him.
Jonathan
I honestly think that Roger will win both this and Gstaad to get both some form and some confidence, make strong runs at Montreal and Cincy (semi finals or better), and then prove everyone wrong and really make some noise at Flushing Meadows. I have nothing very little to back this up with, but I just have a really strange feeling that this summer is going to be a great one for Roger.
Like your optimism Oscar. Not impossible he wins both. I’d like to see it happen.
Hope your gut feeling is true!
I agree with you Oscar, I’ve a good feeling about the summer. In the past, after every tough loss, Federer has come roaring back against all odds. Wimbledon ’08, AO ’09, USO ’11, are a few examples. I think he lacked some motivation this year, but he seems to be back for the fight with these tournaments. As long as the game and brain is firing, I expect he’ll astound everyone once again.
I will wait and see what happens after these 2 tournaments. Should be a good indicator as he needs to build momentum.
…I think Roger went to the Maldives too..
Your comments confirmed my uneasiness when I saw the draw. A challenging tournament, but interesting for us!
Let us all hope he regains confidence and treats us all to the A game again.
Thanks as usual for your post Jonathan..love your blog.
Ah cool, didn’t know that. He has a house there though I think? Nice destination!
Jonathan
If Roger wins this title with this type of field, I think it will be a very successful tournament for him. He needs confidence big time after Wimbledon so time to get back to work. I will be very interested to see how he plays the big points under pressure which is something he has been struggling with since the US Open last year. He needs a pick me up to have good form going into the North American season- we have all said at the beginning that US Open was somewhere he would want to do well. Anyway, quite a few stretch of matches before we get to that place so let’s take it one match at a time and see what happens huh? Looking forward to the Gulbis match if it comes to be that’s for sure…Except Roger might want to turn away every time he sees that forehand of his!
Allez, make this summer one to remember Fedex 😀
Also what are our thoughts on Connors coaching Sharapova? First Lendl, now Connors..Who’s next?
Oh boy! Connors coaching her? They are just perfect for each other.
Who’s next? My guess is McEnroe coaching Roger 🙂
Gee, how about Uncle TONI coaching Rog??? Lol!
Haha good one Sid, the funny thing is I heard that McEnroe was interested in coaching Roger but obviously Fed knows better that that.
I forgot Connors coached Roddick didn’t he? All I can say about this new partnership is that in Connor’s next book he will talk about the love triangle that formed between Maria, Grigor and himself (this is the part where he reveals that Maria got in the way for his and Dimitrov’s happy ending) All jokes aside, I don’t think Sharapova will benefit from it but anything to overcome Serena.
Hey Sid, who you think is going to win US Open?
Alysha, just saw your comment. Given Roger’s current form, he has a zero chance of winning the USO. We don’t know what’s in store over the next few weeks but it sounds like there won’t be enough time for a turn around.
So, I’d put Roger’s chances of winning USO at…5%?
*Dr. Evil look*
@Alysha – I’m not sure about Connorpova, they seem like they wouldn’t get on in a million years but I guess they have at spoken in depth so must both think it can work out. Not sure what he can do for her though, she’s maxed her talent. Maybe he can make her tougher on court although she’s already pretty cold.
@Sid @Alysha – when Fed was struggling in 2009 McEnroe offered his help – “I would really like to help Roger. Especially as he needs to change his strategy if he wants to beat Nadal. And I have an idea about that.
“I can’t see myself accompanying a player all year long but it could be really interesting to help out from time to time.”
Not sure what he could have done but would have been interesting to see it, I think he’s a clown commentator but I guess strategically / tactically he might be pretty good as he’s still pretty sharp even playing now. Just can’t see Fed getting along with him though.
You get the sense McEnroe still sees him as an opponent even though he’s long retired!
Jonathan
Jonathan, I know about the McEnroe offer, hence the sarcasm in my previous comment 🙂 Of course, there is nothing McEnroe has to offer Roger.
The way I see it, Roger’s playing these events for free, that is, he has no points invested in them from last year. So, my prediction too is that he will win both events 🙂
Nice way of looking at it!
Maybe we’ll see a 95 racquet and/or new strings, which would be a good thing right now.
Maybe, the pics of him in Hamburg look like he is trying something!
I don’t care much about the draw nowadays because it often doesn’t go accordingly.
One of Roger’s greatest qualities is the ability to get over tough losses quickly and move on. He knows what to do next and just gets on. He needs winning matches and the ranking points so I think he will get those. I wouldn’t surprised if he wins both titles and hope he does! At the same time, no points to defend so he might try new things or two like some of you think, 95 racquet? I believe He believes he can improve his game. After all he is one of the sport’s best learner, isn’t he? Allez!
True, I’m sure it will change from his seeded opponents, someone is bound to lose.
And looks like you could be right on the trying new things front, new racquet he has been pictured with.
Jonathan
I too have the feeling that Roger will do well in both these upcoming tournaments, and will possibly win both. Whether he tries anything new during these tournaments or even using a new racquet remains to be seen. I do have a strong feeling that he will go all the way at the US Open and in doing so not only silence all the doubters but more importantly rekindle that self-belief within himself which is THE biggest attribute to sporting success and life in general. And I think that his stubborn side which can often be a liability will this time prove to be his achilles heel.
[And I think that his stubborn side which can often be a liability will this time prove to be his achilles heel.]
That did not compute 🙂 Did you mean…will this time prove to be an asset?
Hope so Paul. You are one of Roger’s most optimistic fans, good to see that not everyone is writing him off.
And yeah I think Paul meant will be an asset.
Can’t wait to see Roger back in action. I hope he embraces new technology and elects to use a bigger racquet. I would think that ignoring changing trends in technology could prove detrimental if Roger wants to keep on playing and why should he stop now? So many are electing to carry on playing way into their thirties and I think that is great for the player and spectator alike.
Yeah looks like Wimbledon could have been a wake up call. Probably wouldn’t have shanked that BH on match point with a bigger frame 😛