Hey guys, the second slam of the year is almost upon us and earlier today the draw for Roland Garros landed. All the talk pre tournament was where Nadal would slot into things due to his ranking only affording him 6th seed status. Interestingly he's found himself in Djokovic's section which could mean a potential Quarter Final between the two.
With both those guys in the top half, along with Murray and Ferrer, Roger's section is looking pretty good and if things fall into place he should be able to make a deep run. You can see his projected opponents below:
Federer's Projected Opponents
- 1st Round: Alejandro Falla
- 2nd Round: Marcel Granollers
- 3rd Round: Ivo Karlovic
- 4th Round: Gael Monfils
- Quarter Final: Stan Wawrinka
- Semi Final: Tomas Berdych
- Final: Novak Djokovic
Thoughts on Federer's Draw
First up is Alejandro Falla who gets his spot in the main draw as a lucky loser. We all remember his match with Roger at Wimbledon in 2010 where he came within three points of the match and really should have won. However I can't see anything close to a repeat of that here; Falla isn't in the greatest form this year and whilst competent on clay he's more of a hard court player. He'll probably come out swinging but Roger should have plenty in the tank to see him off in straights.
Second Round could see Roger face the man who took him to 4 sets at last years US Open, Marcel Granollers. The Spaniard is an accomplished clay courter but over 5 sets I don't think he really has the game to trouble Federer. He can start fast like we saw at the USO but he faded quickly in that one and I'd expect similar here.
The third round is seeded to be against Ivo Karlovic but he's only ever made the last 32 at Roland Garros once before and would need to see off Baghdatis in the first round and potentially Youzhny in the second round. I'd pick Youzhny to come through here and face Fed in the third round which should be a routine match for the Swiss.
Into the last 16 and the first real test could present itself in the shape of Gael Monfils. Monfils has won the last two meetings between the two of them which were both on clay at the Davis Cup and Monte Carlo respectively. There are some concerns over the Frenchman's fitness though after he withdrew from Rome and appeared to have knee troubles during his loss to Granollers in Madrid but you never know with him. I'm pretty sure he will be highly motivated to perform well in front his home crowd and he made the Quarter Finals last year so is definitely a threat to Roger on this surface.
With Roger's quarter looking pretty tame the only name that stands out as a potential Quarter Final opponent is Wawrinka. Roger schooled him in Rome and the Swiss number 2 has just lost to Delbonis in Geneva. Hard to see him really having what it takes to beat Roger over 5 in Paris but if his game clicks then he's always a danger.
The Semi Finals are seeded to be against Mr. Consistent of 2015 Tomas Berdych. Berdych has a patchy record in Paris with a couple of first round losses combined with making the Quarter and Semi Finals in years gone by. Based on form he should really make the second week here but after Roger handled him easily in both Indian Wells & Rome he's not as scarier a proposition as he was a couple of years back.
The final opponent is of course seeded to be Djokovic but he has to potentially get through Nadal in the Quarter Finals which won't be an easy task. He's the hot favourite after his performances this year but anything could happen and I don't think it will be all plain sailing. The same can be said for Federer's section too though – on paper it looks like there aren't too many troublesome opponents but things can change in the blink of an eye and it only takes one player to catch fire to cause an upset or throw the projected opponents completely out the window.
Overall though after beating four top 25 players in a row in Rome I do like Fed's chances of making the second week and if he plays somewhere close to his base level then he should come through his section. It's really only Monfils who appears to have the firepower to do damage prior to the Quarter Finals but as always it's just one match at a time. As per Twitter it looks like Roger will be getting his campaign off on Sunday.
- Djokovic to not win the French Open
- Nadal to not win the French Open
- Federer to not win the French Open
- Sock to defeat Dimitrov
- Murray to struggle against Arguello
- Fognini to take out Berdych
Let me know what you guys think of the draw in the comments 🙂
PS You can read Roger's pre tournament press transcript here.