ATP Masters 1000Indian WellsRoger Federer

Federer Brushes Off Tursunov Challenge in Indian Wells

A tough battle here for Roger in the Indian Wells sun as he saw off Dmitry Turusnov 7-6(7) 7-6(2) to move into the fourth round where he'll face Tommy Haas.

It was another tricky match where Fed had to use his experience and focus to cross the line. Couple of blips when he could have been home and dry but he served solidly in both tie breakers to come away worthy winner.

Only blemish again was failing to serve out the first set, becoming a regular occurence and I would guess that it is playing on Roger's mind. Feels like he goes into these games expecting to get broken. The good thing is he always bounces back straight after, but against top tier it may come back to haunt him so I'd rather he cuts it out.

Quick Match Recap

Federer defeats Tursunov Indian Wells

Another flying start for Fed here as he broke first game thanks to Tursunov chosing to red line his game from the first point. Suicide move from the Russian as he went for way too much making 3 errors to donate the break.

A love hold followed from the Swiss and he had a chance to get the double break in Tursunov's next service game but couldn't capitalise.

2-1 soon became 4-2 and we'd already witnessed some exquisite shotmaking from Roger. He was hitting the ball cleanly off both wings and constructing points peRFectly. In fact he hit more winners in 5 games than Murray hit in 2 hours πŸ˜€

To his credit though Tursunov was keeping in touch with some decent play of his own. Fed had all the chances but Tursunov just kept holding onto his serve. That refusal to go away got him back into the first set when he broke Federer to level at 5 all.

It was another sloppy service game from Roger who went from constructing points nicely to losing all sense of direction. Happened a few times in his last few matches unfortunately but hasn't yet cost him.

A quick hold then saw Roger force the tie break and he got his nose in front when Tursunov made a mess of a relatively easy volley at 2 all. At 5-4 Fed had 2 serves to close it out but rifled a forehand long before taking the next to get set point on Turusnov's own serve.

The Russian saved the first but then double faulted to give Fed his 2nd set point this time on his own serve. Again it went begging with more sweet ball striking from the Russian.

At 7 all Roger played a ridiculous drop shot that just creeped over the net. It was a terrible shot to play under the circumstances, but turned out to be a great decision as it was a clean winner. Luck/genius/desperation who knows :D. That gave him another set point on Tursunov's serve which he sealed with a forehand passing shot.

Second set and Tursunov had started to find his range, hitting with consistent depth on his groundstrokes which earned him an early break. As we've seen in recent weeks Roger responded instantly breaking back to love to level at 2 all which is always a good sign.

Both players traded comfortable holds and the only real testing moment was at 30 all, 5 all on Roger's serve but he came through it with flying colours. Tursunov then held to force another tie break.

This one was one sided and thanks to a Tursunov double fault Roger was able to put daylight between himself and his opponent. An ace followed by a sick run-around forehand return winner gave Roger a 5-1 lead and he closed it out with an ace to take it 7-2. Nice!

Match Stats

D.Β Tursunov R.Β Federer
Aces 7 9
Double Faults 6 1
1st Serve % 46% 68%
1st Serve Points Won 27/37 (73%) 38/53 (72%)
2nd Serve Points Won 23/43 (53%) 17/25 (68%)
Winners 23 33
Unforced Errors 27 27
Break Points Saved 1/3 (33%) 1/3 (33%)
Service Games Played 12 12
1st Return Points Won 15/53 (28%) 10/37 (27%)
2nd Return Points Won 8/25 (32%) 20/43 (47%)
Break Points Won 2/3 (67%) 2/3 (67%)
Return Games Played 12 12
Total Service Points Won 50/80 (63%) 55/78 (71%)
Total Return Points Won 23/78 (29%) 30/80 (38%)
Total Points Won 73/158 (46%) 85/158 (54%)

Point of the Match

Thoughts on the Match

Federer Indian Wells 3R 2014

I know what my solid level is. Even if I won 6 and 6 today, I just feel like I was calm and served for the set. Okay, got broken. Still managed to stay calm. Down a set in the second; stayed calm and came back. So those are the moments where you feel there is confidence around somewhere.

Not a whole lot to say other than just another solid match from Fed. Played well in patches and never looked like he was going to lose.

Again I thought he served well when he needed to and was able to get the job done in straights when it could quite easily have gone to three.

I thought Tursunov gave a good account of himself which is what I expected, he keeps you honest and won't hold back on his ground strokes. Some good play from Fed and a few too many double faults / errors made the difference in the end.

It's a little frustrating Roger keeps failing to serve out sets though. It feels like it's almost a mental block at the minute that he's conscious of, looks like he half expects to get broken as though it's the “norm”. Good news is that he has managed to play point for point immediately after and not let it play on his mind.

Stats wise it was a clean kill, winners outnumbered the errors which is the one I always look for in Fed matches. Served a high % of first serves and won 85/158 (54%) to 73/158 (46%).

Looks like he's still getting fully used to the surface / conditions (which happen to look pretty slow) so any win is a good win. Realistically he needs to save his best form for the later rounds anyway so I can't complain. Main thing is he's not getting flustered and just keeping calm after minor mid match setbacks.

Predictions vs. Haas

Federer Haas in Halle

So next up is Roger's old mate Tommy Haas who defeated Kei Nishikori in straight sets.

Usually an interesting matchup this one with Roger winning 12 of their 15 encounters and it's 6-2 on hard courts. They've never played in Indian Wells though as in 2008 Haas withdrew from their Quarter Final meeting.

Last time they played was in Cincinnati where Roger came back from a first set breadstick to win in 3. That was an important win back then as he'd been seriously slumping post Halle.

Haas has had a couple of injury niggles this year so looks lik Fed needs to make it slightly physical and move the German around the court whenever he gets chance.

I think Fed is better in all areas and although Haas is capable of producing inspired performances like the one against Djoker in Miami last year it should be straight sets for the GOAT.

Slow-ish court favours Haas somewhat I think but if Fed serves 65%+ and hits the backhand well I think he crosses the line comfortably. 6-4 6-4.

Jonathan

Huge fan of Roger Federer. I watch all his matches from Grand Slam level right down to ATP 250. When I'm not watching or tweeting about tennis I play regularly myself and use this blog to share my thoughts on Federer and tennis in general.

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201 Comments

      1. I would like to thank the academy… my parents, Roger and Jonathan for this prize…
        Great post man!

        I feel a bit uneasy with the whole not being able to serve it out…

        But… Nadal lost so, Rogers half just got easyer…

      1. I’ve got my fair share of missed titles! πŸ˜€
        Now I got my third title I think! xD

        Pacience grasshopper! Your time will come!

      2. When????? When will my time come???? Hey wait….. it took Stan a lot of tries before he won a GS……… so………. I can do it too !!! See…. what a little faith accomplishes πŸ™‚

    1. Hahaha! I hunted previous posts to get first and now I just accidentaly wanted to chek the site an BOOM!

      Anyway yeah solid performance. Really strong mentally.
      Improoved on his tie break record πŸ˜€
      But why not confortably serve it out?
      Maybe he wanted the drama…

      Have a good one!
      Allez for the title ROGER!

      1. After years of trainning and gaining experience, after many battles, after spilling blood and sacrificing dear ones… I have learned what one has to do to win a title here…
        …. you have to spy on Jonathan.

  1. First of all, thanks to Jonathan for this blog. I recommend this blog to all my friends that also Fedfan and they love it as well. As one of the comment that I read here before, watching Federer match was never feel complete without reading your analysis after. Great work, buddy.

    I watched the match only 1st set, and when it was 7-6 in tie break, the rain started and my cable lost the connectivity (I scream and cursed my provider).

    Stat wise it was look good, but during watching Fed play, i think he hasn’t been adjusted with IW yet, maybe because of Dubai? But anyway, I am glad that he won, and maybe this is exactly what he needs for the next match, the confidence to win a match in 2 TB. Good for him, but it was giving me a heart attack, hahaha..

    1. I think that too Amar, IW is playing reeeeally slow (it’s actually annoying) I think that may be affecting Roger.

    2. Cheers Amar.

      And I agree, Fed not full synched with the court yet. The conditions here are completely different to Dubai. Much slower off the court but the ball can fly through the air in IW. I think they look very slow this year but that’s just what I see on TV.

      1. The courts and balls are tailored for Isner as Peter Fleming said, only tourney where he usually does well as his serve ( watch his previous match) becomes u returnable.

  2. Good win for Roger, shows his self-belief and confidence. Only minor blip is during the 1st set. He has to stop thinking that he is expecting to get broken when serving for the set. This will not do against top 10 players. Meanwhile Roger and Stan are going overdrive with tweet bromance, hilarious stuff.

  3. Great performance, agree 100% the only bad thing was that por service game at 5-4, and actually for the very first time in a while even tho’ the score was really close I always knew Federer was going to win, he just looked so poised.

  4. Great post Jonathan! Did you watch the doubles match? 6 and 6, it looks like it was a fine one, would love to read a post about the doubles match as well

    1. Hey Carlos,

      Nah doubles was on too late for me and I rarely watch it. It’s time consuming enough factoring in singles so doing doubles too not going to be possible.

      I don’t mind it but not that competitive, as we see when doubles part timers like Fed and Stan take out seeded pairs easily.

      Jonathan

  5. Damn I missed this one. Got to see the match point ace. From the highlights it seemed is a good match but maybe it wasn’t. Nice length of both wings but as you said Jonathan. Very important. Clean contact on this slow surface will be important. Will glue myself to the computer for the Haas match. Should be good to see. Haas used to be my hero a decade ago. Loved his backhand.

    And a big hurrah to Dolgopolov for taking out the Dull out of the tournament.

    1. Yeah I like Haas, he has been good these last 2 years putting in some sweet performances for the Overs 30’s club. Annoying that people compare him to Fed though now, the guy went missing in his prime.

  6. “At 5 all Fed had 2 serves to close it ”

    Tie-breaks change serve when the total score is an odd number. Fed had 2 serves to close it out at 5-4 in the breaker, not at 5-5.

  7. Fed vs Haas
    Fed vs Stan
    Fed vs Murray
    Fed vs Djoker
    @ ds rate, will we have anything in the tank left for Miami……
    not liking this draw nemore

      1. When does Miami start? On my RF calendar it says 17 March but for some reason I’ve pencilled it in for April.

      2. I think it sort of depends how deep here and points scenario as he cld get back up to 4/5 if things happen in his favour!

  8. tomorrow……………tomorrow……………………FedVhaas…………tomorrow ;).
    Won’t miss it for anything!

  9. Really pleased for the win, and some amazing points, but what concerned me was that Tursunov seemed more able to dominate the rallies. Quite a few times, Fed would be on top but Tursunov would defend well, turn it around and overpower / outplay Roger. He does obviously hit well, but I’d like to see Roger dictating rallies a bit more – like in the old days, when he would hit one forehand and then suddenly start taking charge.

    I guess it is a lot harder on a slow court. Hoping he can go deep and earn some good points / win another title πŸ™‚

    1. Tursunov is a meaty ball striker. He will be able to boss most guys around. I thought for most of the first set Fed was on top Slow court too doesn’t help so much.

  10. As I regard myself as one of the biggest Fed fans in the world, may I join you, the equally passionate Fed fans? This is my first experience ever, though I’ve been reading Jonathan’s blogs/analyses of Rog’s past mathes and your comments for years.

    1. Welcome Gang!

      (Can’t resist…. β™ͺβ™«β™ͺ Hail, Hail, the gang’s all here β™«β™«β™ͺ….. )

    2. Hey Gang,

      Thanks for commenting πŸ™‚ always good to see people let me know they have been reading for a while but never commented as I have no other way of knowing they exist!

      Jonathan

      1. Thanks guys,
        As many mentioned it quite a few times here , witnessing Rog’s winning is never complete without reading your in-depth analyses of the matches – we Fef fans owe you a very big ‘thank you’. I tend to read them much later, if Rog loses, as it pains me so much to read what he should/should not have done but among the first to get on to your blog to read your analysis whenever he wins :). After Rog’s win at Dubai, I checked here half a dozen times before seeing your analysis coming out – I thought that you went away for a holiday at a crucial time.
        I usually go a lot further to follow lots of other commentry around world to see what they say about Rog’s win! πŸ™‚
        Here seems always very cosy πŸ™‚

  11. In his presser Roger said the court was fast and the balls were flying, so I guess appearances can be deceptive. Looked pretty slow to me.

    It is slightly worrying that he can’t seem to serve it out these days, is that 3 times he’s done that now? Things happen in threes they say so maybe that phase is over. At least he seems to have cut out the first game loss, his movement looked good and his shots were a lot more accurate and fluid than for the past couple of days where there have been some scrappy moments. A good win, and a good writeup Jonathan. Thanks.

    1. When I say past couple of days I mean past couple of matches.

      Off to see if I can find a link to the doubles match now. Haven’t seen any of that. Some hilarious tweets between Stan and Roger though.

    2. I’ve actually got similar feelings – the courts are slow. I’ve watched quite a few Youtube clips and have got the impression that none of the big hitters could hit ball through. No wonder that quite a few of them adopted the moon-balling tactic to pin the opponents at the baseline. I bet that Larry Elison has noted it.

      1. Through the air it’s quick, but I think once it bounces it slows up. I’m surprised Nadal wasn’t more effective with his topspin.

  12. Federer played quite passively and poorly but managed to squeak through based on some great serves and Tursunov faltering at the right moments. Tursunov even winked and smiled at Fed before they shook hands at the end. Maybe he hates Nadal that much to tank subconsciously to the Swiss.
    Anyway Tommy Haas-Been may be hard to break as well with a much better serve so it will be hard for Roger to progress much further this tournament. He should be the underdog from every match hereon in.

    1. Fed an underdog vs Haas? No chance. 12-3 H2H.

      And his serve is no better than Turusnov’s. Haas is a double fault expert too. Served 5 vs Nishikori compared to Tursunov’s 6. I think Turusnov first serve is actually better.

      1. It is important that Rog will not trade rallys with Tommy, ending up with UFEs. I will be pleased that Rog brings Tommy in from time to time and change the pace a bit. This way, he will take Tommy down in straights.

    2. I don’t think rallying with Haas will be touch much of an issue. Haas is a very talented shotmaker so Fed just had to hold his own serve by making high % of first serves and apply pressure on the Haas serve himself. I think if Fed returns well we can expect some DF’s. Haas is a choker really so I think Fed can tough this one out if he needs to.

  13. Wow, a few negative comments here!! Hv we forgotten from where he has come from, physically and mentally. This was a good win! Tursunov v unpredictable And big power as Jonathan alluded to. Fed served v well apart from one game really at 5-4 and winners still outweighed errors. Yes, some of it was patchy but wasn’t playing a total novice!! Got it done in straights and kept calm. In fact His presser was v simIlae to some poitnts raised by Jonathan in his spot on analysis. Kept calm, knew he cld get broken but no panic and when he needed, he played the big points v well. Pretty may be nice but winning is better and he knows it! Solid solid solid! Look around! Nadal out, Berdych out, Tsonga out, Muzza struggling! Nothing is a given at IW! Allez!

    1. Not forgotten, no Susie. Just playing devil’s advocate. For a man who said he hoped to be back to form by April, winning a title, reaching finals or semis in all other tournaments and beating most of the top ten players on the way is quite an achievement. Just a a tad concerned about the serving it out problem he seems to have right now. But I’m hoping that’s over now. Looking forward to tomorrow’s match immensely. I like haas. Good looking chap.

      1. Me too, think it will be a late one though given the seeds who hv fallen! And they hv to schedule the dubs!

    2. This is precisely the reason for Rog to stay completely focused. Any loss of concentrations could be costly. All those top seeds who lost thought that they might have been able to get away with the below par performances – not a chance. They were all caught up and lost. The courts are slow so that many players seem to move really well. It is difficult to play well.

    3. Hey Susie, I am still calling it: Roger vs Dimi final where Roger will win !!!

      And Rita, Haas is not a goodlooking chap, he is a great looking chap with a great body πŸ™‚

      1. Hey Rita, Haas was looking really really really great πŸ™‚ Did he lose weight? What is it with the guys?? Stan seems to have lost weight too. Roger is thin, so are Novak and Andy. Novak and Andy don’t have bodyfat at all. Me, I have to go 3 times a week to fitness to keep myself in shape. And the crunches that Roger makes look so easy peasy are not easy at all πŸ™‚

  14. Btw, I put a small bet on Nadal to lose (Andy too). Didn’t check the odds and was surprised to see they were only 6 to 1 against him, whereas Andy’s was something like 20 to 1. Looks like people are beginning to lose confidence in him (Nadal).

      1. Hey Rita and Jonathan, maybe a good idea to bet on exactly WHEN we will see Rafa and Andy play each other πŸ™‚ It’s almost 30 months now….

      2. What do you mean “finally”. I’m ahead you know – by 5 francs! Dolgopolov was 6/1 to win. Have put a bet on Gonzalez to beat Djokovic too. Though I think I might lose my 1 franc there!

      3. What’s the difference exactly between 1/6 and 6/1? Betting ain’t allowed where I live πŸ™ Haha.

      4. 1 to 6 means if you put Β£6 on you will get Β£1 back. 6/1 means if you put Β£1 on you get Β£6 back. Plus your original stake of course.

  15. Hi Jonathan

    Glad to see Fed came through – the scoreline was a lot closer than I thought it would be but he seemed relatively calm – lovely that he came through the doubles as well with stan andmy prayers were answered for someone to please knock out Nadal Onward and upward. and in answer to a question you posed in an earlier blog @SwissTrudi

    1. Hey Trudi,

      I am your first follower πŸ™‚

      Surprising win for Dolgo, Nadal actually won more points in the match but clearly slumping right now. Could be something physical for him but he’s had too many issues in the past to really know what is real and what’s not.

      Jonathan

      1. Thank you Jonathan I am still very much a novice only sent one tweet )2 if you count the one I sent to myself – it was suppose to go to RF – not quite got the hang of it yet!!)

  16. Hey guys!

    Nice post Johnathan, as always!

    Even if it has become a habit, I still cannot get over the fact that Roger cannot close out matches. It is not sustainable but luckily he also has raised his level against top 10 players. Looks like he really needs a worthy opponent to get the right focus. As long as it does not cost him in the early rounds, I guess it is ok (but not for my heart…).

    A lot of you have commented that the courts play rather slow but I found it pretty fast, Fed and Tursunov were really going at it and it was an enjoyable match.

    I got to see the last set of Nadal vs. Dolgopolov yesterday and I was pleased to see Rafa loose. I felt happy for Dolgo who deserved to win but could not help thinking: this should be happing to Fed, not Dolgo! How come this guy can do it, even after choking to close it out, and Fed not? To me the key was the BH. Solid, light-striking flat two-handed BH that refused to be bullied by Rafas FH. Also, it was nice to see that Rafa did not use any physical excuse to justify the loss, which was a constant line of defense after losing to the kind of Rosol etc.

    What do you think?

    Cheers

  17. Mad scheduling tomorrow. Fed 4th match on, on Stadium after Murray, forgettable women’s singles, then Stan and then Fed! About midnight? UK time? And they hv scheduled the dubs sometime after that? I suppose they may pull out depending on how singles go! Anderson won’t be a pushover but expect there to be a Stan/Fed QF at the end of it!!

  18. F.A.O Jonathan. …first of all Thanks for your excellent analysis and match summary. I have to say I get a much more balanced account from your Article than when I read the ESPN, BBC sports, Telegraph or the Independent to name a few. As lately soon as Federer losses they make completely over the top analysis and keep cursing his downfall. And especially the 2013 season they had a field day. Then they forget the consistency, the number of matches he has played, the numerous records broken and being achieved plus the 10 to 15 years pn the Tennis circuit. Because he is not achieving the 2 or 3 grand slams a year anymore. Thats it with the so called Tennis pundits, experts and journalists they will just be happy to write the repetitive garbage of retirement, age, Cant win anymore etc etc
    This is why I like reading these posts as they are more fair , less biased even though u are Federer fan but when he plays crap you actually write down in your write up that Yep Federer played like school boy and was S**t!!!! So THANKS JONATHAN MUCH APPRECIATED FOR YOUR HARD WORK AND DEDICATION! !!!!
    Back to the Tursunov match I didn’t watch the match but I was listening to match on Fivelive Radio. I got a little annoyed and angry when Federer couldn’t serve out the set. But I did have a feeling that Federer would win but would make it hard for him self. But I am definitely pleased and happy he is the next round. I just hope Federer can up his game round by round. Go Rogeeeeeeeeerrrrrr!!!!!!!

      1. Thanks Wanda πŸ™‚ for agreeing with my comment regarding this site. I think Jonathan does a great job, which shows with the loyalrregular readers. Plus he receives alot of comments that have alot of knowledgeable Tennis/Federer fans including yourself Wanda that make great comments, questions and debate. SoI raise my glass to Jonathan and say CheersMate!!!!!

  19. Rafael Nadal has proven beyond doubt, that he is an unmitigated asshole. What does some one have to do to make sure they beat him fair? If it’s not the wind, or the surface or scheduling, where the ATP is at fault, or the countless injuries he has had to deal with throughout his career, then it must just be a freak accident.

    “These things happen”; “Today was an accident”. Really? That was it?

    What’s even more appalling is that his fans think that he couldn’t have said it better.

    1. Well Sid….. there goes my Roger/Dimi-final πŸ™‚

      Now… I am calling a Roger/Gulbis-final where Roger will win πŸ™‚ I still don’t think Novak will reach the final, although it does seem to help him that Vajda is back…..

      Hey guys, don’t take my predictions too seriously. I also predicted last year that Goffin would rise. How right was I about that, huh??? Anyone still remember him πŸ™‚

      1. Maybe Simon………… when Maria went out he thought, wow, more time to spent with here.
        Why not lose??? I mean I don’t think his coach allows him to be with her a lot πŸ™‚

        Oh and Simon, this year Dimi and Jolly Jerzy will rise. Yep. Another great prediction πŸ™‚

  20. Although he couldn’t serve out for the 1st set, winning both TBs is a great sign. He actually won another two with Stan later, didn’t he? I’m pleased and just happy to see him in a good shape, playing solid.

    Look forward to finding out which is your ‘Shot of the Match’, Jonathan πŸ˜‰

  21. Hope stadiums 1 and 2 are close together. Roger is going to have to run to make his doubles match in time after the singles tonight πŸ™

    1. I know crap scheduling! If both Fed and Stan win, I think the temptation to withdraw or flunk the match will be a factor!

      1. I kind of hope Roger and Stan defeat Paes and Stepanek because they make such a cute Suisse team with 18 GS between them, but…. to be honest…. wouldn’t mind if Paes and Stepanek win this one. After what Stepanek went through with Rafa, he kind of deserves a win…..

      2. Hi Katyani… I agree with you about Stepanek. He was sooo close to beating Nadal. I absolutely hate ot when he is on the brink of losing , Nadal just somehow ends ip winning. It kind of reminds me of Football when Man United score aa goal in the last dying extra minutes. Unbelievable, I absolutely hate Nadal and Man United for that matter. And then you have to listen to lies by Nadal of no appreciation of the other player or howthey pplayed better than him. But he just happened to win the crucial bp chance. ” I jus play with more intensity, no!! Or bs of his bad luck that he couldn’t play the way he wanted’!!!’
        Anyway even though I like Stepanek I would still like Federer and Stan the man to win.

      3. Hey Serajul, your comment +1. Although I am not a big football fan (soccer). Only when Holland plays for the Europian or World Champion. Did you know that we lost the World Championship in 2010 to Spain (of al countries)??? I mean, my God, after 32 years we finally made the final…

        Anyway, I am watching Stan vs Anderson. 1 set each. Stan will make it, but I don’t think Roger and Stan will play the doubles. Stan has backproblems and the trainer has been on court 3 times now.

        As far as Paes is concerned, don’t really have a opinion about him. But Stepanek I really like a lot. He is SO funny. And honestly I did not know he played singles that good. First in Dubai against Roger and now against Rafa. Of course I would like Roger and Stan to win, but I felt SO bad for Stepanek after the loss, especially the way Ellison behaved.

        Ps: Serajul, did you see Andy vs Raonic?? Oh my God, Raonic…. 16 aces, making like 27 out of 33 netpoints…. if he has to play Roger…. all the big hitters, like him and Anderson and Isner. Danger time for Roger ahead. But lets see off Tommy first….

      4. Simon, Paes and Stepanek are two assholes on the same side of the net. You don’t often see that happening πŸ™‚

  22. I’m a bit late but only got to catch up on the match- Fed not as solid on the baseline as he was in Dubai, so maybe he hasn’t adapted to the conditions yet but will have to wait and see what happens now that he’s getting to the nitty gritty stages and could play a night match as well possibly. The quality of tennis at Indian Wells is pretty terrible this year for some reason (court speed cough cough) and I definitely know it will probably be worst in Miami, it seems the clay season is already upon us huh?

    Very surprised about Nadal’s exit, has he ever defended a non-clay title? Say what you will but Nadal is still hurting from his AO loss, when Roger rises Rafa slumps so interesting times ahead. Fed treading the line with this recent habit of not being able to serve things out, don’t know if Edberg can really help him with that, looks to be a purely mental thing with him at this stage in his career now-but he’s already done some good things so far this early in the season and might be back in the top 5 by next week so can’t be too harsh. Looking forward to the match with Tommy and then hopefully Stan! Keep the analysis coming Jonathan πŸ™‚

    1. Totally agree re Nadal! He took that AO defeat vv badly, and hasn’t quite got his full motivation back! I see another time out ahead!!

      1. Susie, I see that too (and looking forward to hear which part of body that injured now). But of course it will not happen before Nadal Christmas Season (clay season). Even when the world flip upside down, he’ll never miss that πŸ™‚

  23. Could anyone see Rog/Cilic final? (of course with Rog winning :))
    I’ve been having this weird feeling that this year IW courts are so slow that the most of 2nd tier players seem to move very well around court. This makes top tier guys feel very difficult to beat them with just power and touch. There could be more ‘surprise’ results in the next two rounds – struggling Andy, Nole’s Cilic test, Stan’s run … .

    1. I think both of them have what it in them to make final, though they both have tough match ups coming. Feds has haas, which is no walkover, and Stan is in shape, I’m not betting anything on that match, should it happen and both of them play well πŸ˜›

      And I’m just not convinced about andy, is he the new Rafa who blames everything on injury? :/

    1. Yeah, that worked out well, didn’t it, Chris? Stan is going all the way, but to Switzerland. And as for beating Roger? That can wait!

      Oh wait, Stan still has a doubles commitment with Roger. What was wrong with him anyways? Completely disinterested.

      1. As Chris Fowler (ESPN) once summed it up, “Stan, that man. More like, Stan the tomato can”. Kevin kept kicking him down the road in that last set.

      2. It’s hard to explain puns to kleptomaniacs because they always take things literally πŸ˜‰

  24. Damn, Raonic has broken back and won 2nd set! Not that I care who wins, just want them to get on with it so we can see Roger’s match sooner rather than later. Thought watching Andy play was boring. Had forgotten about Raonic!

      1. That’s 2 am for me πŸ™ Let’s just hope Stan thinks of Roger and disposes of Anderson quickly

      2. Me too but my match is cancelled tomorrow and only working 1/2 day so think I will stay up!! How cld Murray lose that match! Lendl needs to sort his head out fast or he will slide down the rankings! Fed has massive incentive to win the whole thing. Apart from the title he craves, he wld rise to no 4 in rankings!

      3. Both Stan and Kevin have steadied the ship – this set is heading for TB. It seems a long night to wait for Rog’s match πŸ™

    1. Yeah such a shame it’s so late. And I have to be at office very early tomorrow for a meeting. I can’t afford to be sleepy while presenting sole results to my boss… So will probably miss the match… πŸ™
      Thankfully I have Jonathan’s recaps and all your comments to tell me all about it πŸ™‚
      Top seeds falling one after another in the IW desert so hope Fed can make it through and why not win it all.

      Allez Roger!!

      1. Larry must be pretty anxious about his ticket sales! Needs a Novak/Fed or Fed/Isner final to sell out! Reckon he will hv a quiet word with all Feds opponents telling them he cannot lose!! Empty stadia do not look good!

  25. Hey all… I would like to make my opinion on Nadal and make a outlandish statement of the following:- I think the recent loss at the Australian Open by Nadal was intentionally done. And faked the back injury for public sympathy as well as therrecent loss to Dolgopolov. And heres why, I will keep it brief and to the point.
    1) the elite at the top, the shadows. Near the top the Illuminate, next Bilderberg group, next the free masons, next other secret organisation s. All of the abpve mentioned whether you have heard of them or don’t believe in them. Have through out history of Sports have a tremendous influence on every decision made, ie who is going to win, changing of rule, conditions etc etc to benefit them. Every sport has been corrupted whether you like or not. No matter how fair and unbiased or any cheating can happen. When there is money involved, greed has always played a hand in results.
    Now back to Nadal the elite, his marketing people, other higher organisations that have an investment in Nadal have seen certain Internet comments about speculation of using PE drugs and then his apparent injuries. People are questioning this daily and simply not buying it. Now the way he came back from 7/8 months serious Knee injury and just about won every tournament including grandslams. Are thinking this too good to be true. I mean its just amazing after that long spell, Nadal demolitions everyone.
    So they had a meeting with him and the elite shadows. And they told him to lose the final. Plus they put secret amount of millions betting that Nadal loses. As everone thought it was going to be his 14 th grandslam for sure. They then told him to play act a injury. This way you get the whole world sympathising for you and saying what a champion, still playing and not giving up. So now they fool the world as the elite the tv channels are experts in deception get what they want.
    So now they tell again lose and the entire tennis world forgets his unbelievable run he hadand bblame it on a mysterious injury.
    This is what is happening in everything, whether sports, politics, education we are being sold an entertaining lie. Amd we need to ask questions of is this a lie? Or more importantly have YOU bought into this lie???
    Sorry for the long post.

    1. In the end we’ll never know the truth of what went down with Nadal that day. It just seems absurd that he’d throw away the chance to win another hard court slam, complete another career slam without Djokovic in the way and against someone who hadn’t even taken a set of him until that match. No doubt Stan outplayed him in the first set and deserved it but Rafa looked injured, he definitely had gamesmanship tactics but Stan won in the end and that’s all that matters. He’s obviously not over what happened in Australia so we’ll have to see how he does in the clay season to see how deep this wound is. This isn’t the first nor will it be the last question mark around Nadal’s injuries and slumps but so far I’m liking the way he’s going which is down.

    2. You know, there are those who would tell you that you have a sick mind to think up of such a story, but it is within the realms of possibility. It happens in boxing, it happens in many other sports, tennis is no exception! Any IDIOT who thinks otherwise, is a freaking IDIOT!

      Who knows? Maybe they found something about his drug use and asked him to tank the final instead of having to face charges? In this world we live in, anything you can possibly imagine, is possible.

      1. EVERYTHING IS POSSIBLE! Tell you what, I tell you what: The Swiss #1 just tanked the match against Anderson so Federer and Anderson could meet and determine who is South African #1! πŸ™‚

      2. I’ll tell you what really happened. Stan tanked the match so he can preserve his Swiss No. 1 status. Yup, that’s it. πŸ™‚

    3. Hey Serajul, your comment seems reasonable, except for this sentence: “I think the recent loss at the Australian Open by Nadal was intentionally done”. Rafa loves to play tennis, but loves winning much and much and much more. No way he would let such an important win (twice all slams, 14th, etc) go. Especially with no Novak, Andy or Roger and only Stan.

      And I honestly believe that the loss did more to him than he and his team are showing. This is the beginning of the end of Rafa. Last year more and more players started to believe that they could beat Roger. Now more and more players are starting to believe that Rafa is beatable.

      1. I don’t know Katyani, I don’t think Rafa is done yet at all, there’s a good chance he might not win another Wimbledon but he seems very motivated to get the slam record. Right now his invincibility is not at an all time high but he still intimidates most of the field. I think it’s a combination of the AO loss and the looming clay season, gotta try and fend Djoker off some FO glory…

      2. Hey Alysha, I am not saying that he will lose from now on every match. But he will kind of go the Roger-way after AO 2010. Meaning winning a lot, but with extremely difficulties and losing a lot of very very close matches. He too is getting older and he too is right at that age where all the greats kind of went “down”. I am not saying he will lose it all, but eventhough he won a lot last year, he was a lot of times very close to losing.
        And once… your luck will run out or you will play against someone who happens to be in the zone or you just cannot fight your way out of it (physically or even mentally).
        Rafa seems unhuman and unbeatable, but even HE is human and beatable.
        All you need is a few players who believe that and want to make it happen. Just look at Roger last year. Even with backproblems, but the opponent did believe that they could beat Roger and they held on and worked for it and succeeded.

      3. Rafa can not possibly defend everything he won last year so it’s true what you’re saying- Nadal never has been the type to have two consecutive dominating seasons. But if history tells us a story it’s that if he doesn’t have a great 2014, he will most likely rise in 2015. What age is he turning this year, 28, 29? he’s still a machine and on clay he could probably still be the best into his early thirties. Gotta wait it out and see what happens in the clay season, Djoker really needs some momentum now to get some confidence if he is going to finally knock down Nadal at the French, not loving his game at the moment, been quite shakey at IW already.

        Is Nadal still dealing with the back problem Katyani? If Rafa is dealing with more “injuries” this year then he could have a mediocre 2014 I guess, could be the first year he goes without a slam I think.

      4. Hey Alysha, I don’t know about the injuries Rafa has… He does make an effort not to talk about them too much, but ends up doing that anyway… He will be 28 in the same month as RG. A few days before RG.

    4. Most sports are corrupt because money in involved. But then pretty much all slams and tournaments have to have doubt cast over them not just this years AO.

      Champions league is the worst.

  26. One day ago Stan destroyed Seppi with 6-0 and 6-2 and today??? Makes you appreciate Roger’s consistency more and more. Anyway good work Stan. Don’t think the doubles will go on.
    Just waiting for Roger to come on court, after that…. time to sleep. Have to get up in about 3 hours….
    Please win Roger !!! Goodnight all….

      1. Yep, we are πŸ™‚

        This year Roger will win RG and Wimby. Then he will take a little “mini break”. Then he will win USO. After that he will go for DC of course and for Basel, which he lost two years in a row. Then he will go for WTF which he will win for sure by defeating Rafa.
        He will try to win Rome this year and succeed. After that, if I am not mistaken, he only needs one 1000 tour title. So he will win that and will try to defeat Novak at Cincy so Novak cannot be the first. Roger will also try to stop Rafa at Miami. He might not win Cincy or Miami, but he will stop Novak and Rafa from winning it.

        Then, because he won the remaining 3 GS this year, he will put it all out on AO 2015 and win that one too. Roger-slam !!! After that he will have a little slump, but will recover in time for Wimby 2015. Of course he will win Rio Gold. Rafa won Gold on Hardcourt so naturally Roger will win Gold on Clay. Roger will have won DC and Olympic Gold and he will have had a Roger-slam.

        So what is left you ask??? Well, he wants to make 25 GS !!! After that… he will really just play for the love of the game. Of course in the meantime he will have become number one again. Of course. He will win 1 RG, 3 Wimby, 2 USO and 2 AO !!! Of course he will have won WTF a total of 10 times or more !!!

        Trust me….. this will happen. Mark my words πŸ™‚ Faith people. Faith in the guy πŸ™‚

      2. I just love the Katyani Optimism πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚
        My heart tells me to believe it all, and even if my reason tells me that it is very unlikely, I chose to be optimistic too πŸ™‚ But I’ll take it one slam at a time lol
        Let’s see how the French Open goes πŸ˜‰ And before that, IW trophy is not that far away anymore πŸ˜€

    1. Hey Jonathan, truely spot on. My advice… buy a lottery ticket and if you win big time, don’t forget “sharing your wealth” is the new black πŸ™‚

  27. Stan Out (unfortunately), Andy out…..Federer looks like RED BLOSSOM CHEERY at age of 30+,,,,,,: ))

  28. I don’t feel sorry for any of you Europeans. Finaly, I get matches in my time zone and I don’t have to stay up all night!
    Allez Roger.

    1. Morning Sue! How’s life in the Wild West? Don’t worry about Europeans, but feel sorry for people like me living in Central Asia!

      1. Chris, what is your timezone?
        Cameroon is GMT+1, so at least it is better than Jonathan πŸ™‚

      2. @Amar, I’m in GMT +6 hours
        @Sue, in my time zone, I only get to watch the Kazakh tennis elite around Borat Becker!

  29. No, sorry Chris, I don’t feel for you either! This is the only tournament in my time zone. Just realized, there is only 2 players left in the top ten. That’s got to be a first.

    1. Cilic blew it in the second set but what’s happened to Novak this week, dropping sets to guys he has dismantled in the past, strange week. Novak has to deal with not having a slam in his belt at this stage of the season for the first time in a few years, curious if the AO loss impacts this season for him and especially at the French.

  30. Jonathan, post already!!! How do I get to say ‘First’ if you still haven’t posted the analysis on Fed vs Haas ;'( *heartbreak

  31. @Jonathan, I just deposited the agreed amount on your new number account at the United Bandits of Switzerland (UBS) in Zurich, so you can move my previous comments to you next post right after publishing! πŸ™‚

    1. Chris, you did that too?

      Jonathan, I thought we have an agreement here, how much that Chris deposited? More than mine? πŸ™‚

    2. My first offshore bank account, couple of years earlier than I anticipated πŸ™‚

      I also need you to incorporate peRFect Tennis over there for me for tax relief. Then the first comment spot is yours.

  32. Ironic isn’t it. Last year Roger was way outside the top 4, the press were saying he was finished, could only go downhill from now on, should retire, etc. etc. ad infinitum. Now he’s almost the only one of the top 4 left in this particular challenge! How times change.

    1. Coming full circle at Indian Wells. This tournament last year sealed his fate with injuries and was the catalyst in his ranking drop and now here we are with a chance as Susie said to get back into the top 4 already, I also like his chances against Novak, who hasn’t been adapting very well to the conditions/in a mental rut.

  33. I wonder if this is the year when the new starts are going to come forward. Dolgopolov, perhaps, maybe not but Kevin Anderson is showing some serious qualities. Dimitrov is knocking on the door. Wawrinka, maybe a late bloomer but has really grown the last years and all the big guys seem really vulnerable nowadays. Would be nice if we could see more new faces claiming grand slam trophΓ©s, except for RG. I want Roger to claim that one.

    1. I wouldn’t go as far as to say that guys in the ATP tour are finally stepping up, it’s more a combination of the top guys slacking off and not playing as consistently. I mean there’s only two top 10 players left in the draw in a masters 1000 at the QF stage, lower players taking advantage of their opponents but Indian Wells normally has some surprises so I’m not complaining, fingers crossed we get some better quality tennis in the days to come.

      1. Dolgopolovs weakest shot must be his first serve. His technique is just too weird but he can get a lot of pace on his backhand from practically any position.

  34. I’m with you on this Jarlub, Federer can win RG this year!!! By the way, can someone wake Jonathan please….we really need this analysis…

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