London 2012 OlympicsRoger FedererTennis Predictions

Federer Gets Good Olympic Draw; Faces Falla 1st Round

Hey everyone, apologies on not posting for a while but to be honest I've not had much to talk about since Wimbledon and to top it off I've been pretty busy with work! Anyway, the Olympics officially starts tonight with the opening ceremony and the tennis kicks off tomorrow with Roger 3rd on centre court against Alejandro Falla.

Although I'm already bored of the Olympics, trust me living in the UK means all you hear all day everyday is adverts about it and stupid hype, I'm actually looking forward to watching more grass court tennis. This is the first time in Roger's career we've had the pleasure of watching him play on grass again after Wimbledon, and what better way to do it coming off the back of his 17th Grand slam victory.

Predictions vs. Falla

Everyone else seems to think this is a total routine match but I don't think we can underestimate Falla on grass. He took an albeit injured Roger to 5 sets in the first round of Wimbledon in 2010 and made the third round this year, a fairly solid showing. Some readers even laughed when I predicted Falla would beat Isner in the first round yet he won in 5 sets and then beat grass court specialist Nicolas Mahut before losing to Denis Istomin.

I think Roger is getting the job done but it will be a test, Falla is a leftie and he can certainly come up with some shots so I expect the opening set to be fairly tight hence why I'm predicting 7-5 6-4.

The Rest of Roger's Draw

In the second round Roger will face either Julien Benneteau or Mikhail Youzhny, both of whom he played at this years Wimbledon. The match against Benneteau was one of the keys to the tournament a couple of weeks ago, and the one against Youzhny was a typical JesusFed performance.

If Roger plays Benneteau I'm sure he will demolish him, after beating him from 2 sets down the Frenchman is done before they even get on court. The same applies to Youzhny really, he's never beaten Fed and doesn't have the weapons to cause any problems and once errors creep into his game he pretty much self destructs.

The third round is pretty wide open with Verdasco and Muller potential opponents but I actually think he will play Denis Istomin. Istomin is another tricky player on grass but it should be a comfortable match for Fed. From there the quarters could be against Tipsarevic or Isner and the semis likely to be either Juan Martin Del Potro or David Ferrer. I'll assess those matches nearer the time but I think it's a pretty solid draw and making the final is a real possibility.

The Other Half of the Draw

Both Djokovic and Murray landed in the same half of the draw, and they both have tough matches to get through before potentially meeting in the semi finals.

Murray kicks off against Stan Wawrinka who is more than capable of giving him a hard time, especially over 3 sets, if he tees off with his backhand and keeps the points shorts he could come through but he has to play consistent, something he often struggles with.

Murray also potentially faces Nieminen, Gasquet and Berdych before he can even think about a semi final against Djokovic.

Djokovic faces Fognini first up, then potentially Roddick, I imagine he will routine those before likely facing Hewitt or Maran Cilic, I think he will have too much for those guys and really his only concern is Tsonga in the Quarter finals.

Is Federer Favourite?

On paper Roger is definitely the favourite after his performances over the last 9 months and at Wimbledon but we have to remember the Olympics never quite plays to the script.

Historically Roger hasn't done great in Olympic singles losing early to players he routinely beats in regular tournament play so it's a tough one to call. I think the fact the matches are over 3 sets makes it even more of a lottery, if you get off to a bad start then you don't have long to regroup so I'm sure there will be some upsets across the draw.

Grass definitely gives Roger an advantage so I think he'll make the final and then we shall see. I guess really the Olympics plays out like an old masters 1000 tournament, best of 3 and then a best of 5 final, and Roger had no problem winning those tournaments so he has more than a good chance of taking his first Olympics singles gold medal back to Switzerland before the American hard court swing kicks in.

I'll be posting regular match reports throughout the tournament so stay stuned.


Huge fan of Roger Federer. I watch all his matches from Grand Slam level right down to ATP 250. When I'm not watching or writing about tennis I play regularly myself and have a keen interest in tactics, equipment and technicalties of the sport.

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  1. I think he has a great chance to take home the gold. Being best of 3 means that he has to be sharp all the time though because the chances of losing are that much higher. However, he should beat Falla and then Youzhny/Benneteau and Muller/Verdasco/Istomin all in straights if he plays half as well as he did at Wimbledon. I doubt Isner makes the quarters and Tipsy can’t hurt him. Delpo will be a threat if he gets there but Ferrer will not (not as much, anyway, because he doesn’t have weapons to hurt Fed).

    Fed is 137-18 vs all the guys he could face until the final (and 8 of those are to Nalby, who will probably go out in the 1st round to Tipsy).

  2. Interesting stat there Kyle, about Roger’s head to head versus his half of the draw. You said exactly what I was thinking. Roger needs to play the first like it’s only a two set match, not three. These floaters, or impostors 😉 are dangerous. Isner always gives me the creeps,the moment he tosses the ball in the air.

    I hope Roger does it. Though he doesn’t need it, a singles gold would complete him.

  3. I believe Isner is Fed’s only nightmare until the finals. Would feel more confident if all the matches were best-of-5 though. But If Roger pulled off Wimbledon at almost age 31, he can for sure win this! Never, ever count him out anywhere!

  4. I hadn’t actually seen Roger’s competition until I read your blog, actually. I only knew that Novak and Andy were on the same side of the draw and was extremely happy about that. All I can say is that it’s not all as great as it seems.. given the past Olympic experiences. I honestly think Isner could cause some problems.. if he makes it far enough to play Roger, it might play out to be one of those scary Raonic vs. Fed matches that Roger usually comes through in.

    But overall if Roger stays focused, I think he has a REALLY good chance at solidifying his GOAT label with a singles gold metal.. and not only that, he has a great chance to even get an Olympic metal that’s so far eluded him. What a great opportunity, I can’t wait!

    1. Hey Kelsey,

      For sure I think he has a good chance, I want him to win of course but if he loses I’m not fussed. Olympics not a huge deal to me, more fun that it’s on grass though!

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